Stage Three of the Golden Swing takes us to the crown jewel of the South American tour, the ATP Rio Open. This is an ATP 500 event, so there are twice the number of ranking points up for grabs in Brazil as opposed to the other events this week, and also, the other events in the Golden Swing. As always, we here at LWOT will be offering our predictions for every match on the slate in Rio. But who will advance to the second round?
ATP Rio Day 1 Predictions
Pablo Cuevas vs Pablo Andujar
Head-to-head: Cuevas 4-2 Andujar
This pair have both used a protected ranking to get into the draw here. They have been around that long that their first encounter was in 2007, though that probably won’t have much impact here. Pablo Andujar was in good form in Australia but these Golden Swing events are Pablo Cuevas’ favourite hunting ground. The veteran Uruguayan has won this title before, indeed three of his nine career titles were won in Brazil. However, his 36-year-old body has been letting him down of late. He did complete the match last week against Federico Coria but was only able to produce one really good set of tennis. Andujar will know that if he stays in the match he should have the physical edge over three sets.
Prediction: Andujar in 3
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Shang Juncheng vs Pedro Martinez
Head-to-head: first meeting
Shang Juncheng is going to be a star. However, he is very much in the learning curve of his young career right now. The Chinese took a set from the in-form Liam Broady in his last ATP Tour match, and indeed took it all the way to a third set tie-break. Pedro Martinez is another step up from Broady and whilst Martinez is more than just a clay court player the Spaniard does have his best record on the dirt. The chances are that Sheng will come up short here but it wouldn’t surprise me if the left-handed rookie took a set in this match.
Prediction: Martinez in 3
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Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves vs Miomir Kecmanovic
Head-to-head: first meeting
Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues, the Brazilian wildcard has probably ended up with bout as good a draw as you could expect in an ATP tournament in a qualifier. However, Miomir Kecmanovic is a very talented operator who did very well at the Australian Open and is also used to coming over to South America for these clay-court events. The Serbian handled qualifying very well and beat two players who would probably be favourites against Alves so the chances are that Kecmanovic will take this one. However, if the Rio evening session crowd are invited into the match then they could really cause a tough atmosphere out there. It will be key for Kecmanovic to not give Alves any impetus.
Prediction: Kecmanovic in 2
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Jaume Munar vs Carlos Alcaraz
Head-to-head: Munar 1-0 Alcaraz
Carlos Alcaraz will be well fancied for this match, and, indeed, well fancied for the tournament as a whole. However, this opening match is a very tricky one to negotiate. Their previous match was in the summer of 2021 and it was on clay, therefore very relevant to the form lines. The fact that Jaume Munar won, and in straight sets, gives rise to some doubts about the strength of Alcaraz’s position. The younger Spaniard has perhaps improved even more since then though and will be looking to stake his claim as a top player this season. His explosiveness from both wings will stand him in good stead on these slow courts and I would be surprised if Munar could live with that over three sets.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 3
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