Given that three years ago Andy Murray thought he might have played his last match ever when he lost in the first round of the Australian Open, it represents progress of sorts that he is, a, still playing at all and, b, actually made it to the second round of the Australian Open this week. However, as the Great Scot himself admitted, that is “not good enough” for a player of his legendary status and ability. So the question must now be asked: will Murray ever go deep (i.e. at least reach the second week) in a Major ever again?
The omens are not exactly encouraging. Ever since Murray made his latest and most sustained return from the injury problems that have beset him in the last five or six years, which was at the end of 2019, he has failed to progress beyond the third round of a Slam. His best performance at a Major in that time came last summer at Wimbledon, where he reached the third round before losing in straight sets to Denis Shapovalov. The feelings of frustration that he expressed then, of not being satisfied with only competing in the first week of a Major tournament, were echoed almost word for word this week in Melbourne, where he did not even make the third round but instead lost to qualifier Taro Daniel in straight sets in the second round.
A Career Of Two Halves: Pre-2016 and Post-2016
With the benefit of hindsight, it is now apparent that Murray’s career divides neatly into two halves: pre-2016; and post-2016. In the first half of that career, and specifically in the four years between 2012 and 2016, Murray proved himself to be “The Fourth Man” of tennis – i.e. the best player outside The Big Three of Federer, Nadal and Djokovic – by winning not only three Majors (two Wimbledon titles and one US Open title) but two Olympic Gold Medals in Singles and spearheading Great Britain to victory in the Davis Cup.
The crowing part of that imperial phase of Murray’s career (and it is fair to say that he only ever enjoyed an impergial phase in his career whereas The Big Three have all enjoyed imperial careers) was at the end of 2016, when he went on a remarkable winning run, seemingly circumnavigating the globe several times in pursuit of the ranking points that would see him become the only non-Big Three player to reach the world #1 ranking during their era. And he did so triumphantly, defeating Djokovic in the final at the ATP Finals in the last match of the season to truly bestride the world.
Such have been Murray’s almost incessant injury troubles since that peak that it is tempting to wonder whether that spectacular but sapping run at the end of 2016 took more out of him than anyone at the time, including Murray himself, could have imagined. Certainly, he has not been remotely the same player since, as he has made no other Major final and instead gradually slid further and further down the world rankings. He has produced the occasional brilliant performance, for example against Stefanos Tsitsipas at the 2021 US Open or against Frances Tiafoe at the European Open in Antwerp later that autumn. But to his own huge frustration and that of his many fans, each time he has proved incapable of building upon such positive displays by progressing much further in the tournament.
Future Prospects?
In the immediate aftermath of his most recent first-week loss in a Major, Murray himself admitted that he is acutely aware of the passing of time and that he knew he did not have many more opportunities to progress far in a Grand Slam tournament. It is obviously extraordinarily unlikely now that he will ever win another Major, because even if the days of The Big Three as a whole are numbered, Djokovic (if he is ever allowed to compete again at a Major while remaining unvaccinated) and Nadal still remain Major contenders and Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev are fast closing on them. But Murray would surely be satisfied if he could just go deep in a Major for one last time and reach that elusive second week.
His chances for the immediate future are not hugely encouraging. If he is able to compete at Roland Garros, the unique demands of clay-court tennis are such that it is extremely unlikely that he will be able to make a concerted charge at the French Open. But Wimbledon, his home Slam and the tournament that he so memorably – indeed, unforgettably – won in 2013 and 2016 might just be a different matter.
With nearly five years of injuries inevitably continuing to exert their toll and Murray about to turn 35 in May, it would be a truly fairy-tale ending to his superb career if he could make one last run at a Slam at Wimbledon this summer. That would be exactly 10 years on from first triumphing there in the Olympics, the win that officially marked the start of his imperial phase and that convinced him and everyone else that he could compete at the very top. Even if he only made it as far as the fourth round, that would be enough for him to go deep in a Major one last time, allowing his home fans (coronavirus permitting, of course) to bid the fondest of farewells to their fondest of home favourites.
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