We start the third round on Day 5 of the Australian Open. On Friday, eight women will advance to the second week. As always, we’re here to predict all eight matches for you. We look at four matches in this article and four in a separate article. Predicting these matches are Jim Smith, Johnny Connell, and Jakub Bobro.
Australian Open Day 5 Women’s Predictions
Nuria Parrizas Diaz vs Jessica Pegula
Jim:
Jessica Pegula has set about recapturing the magic that took her to the Australian Open quarterfinals last season. She hasn’t exactly been dominating, but she has looked sharp, particularly in her second-round win over Bernarda Pera. If she can maintain that level she should prove too strong for Nuria Parrizas Diaz.
Prediction: Pegula in 2
Johnny:
The draw has opened up very nicely for Jessica Pegula. The American only just squeezed past Anhelina Kalinina in the opening round but looked better in straight set win over Bernarda Pera in the second round. Parrizas-Diaz had never advanced beyond the first round of a major prior to this event, she has been extremely lucky this week as she defeated Irina Bar in straight sets in round one then received a walkover from Maryna Zanevska to reach the third round. This is Pegula’s match to lose, the American is definitely favored in this matchup in quick conditions and should be solid enough to take advantage of this favourable draw.
Prediction: Pegula in 2
Jakub:
Parrizas Diaz has had a nice road to the third round, defeating lucky loser Irina Bara and then getting a walkover from Maryna Zanevska. Pegula entered Melbourne with two losses under her belt but a dark horse status nonetheless due to her performance in the past 18 months. The American should certainly be the favorite and I expect her to advance.
Prediction: Pegula in 2
Victoria Azarenka vs Elina Svitolina
Jim:
This should be some match for the third round and it’s a match that both will think that they can win. But there is no doubt that it is Victoria Azarenka, who has looked the more impressive of the pair so far. Expect the former-champion to have the edge.
Prediction: Azarenka in 2
Johnny:
Azarenka has looked good through the first couple of rounds, whilst Svitolina looks vulnerable. This is a bad matchup for Svitolina at the best of times, right now Azarenka is in better form. Azarenka has won all of their previous meetings, including a bizarre straight set win last year in Doha where Azarenka was injured but still won quite easily. Azarenka’s disciplined, aggressive style allows her to consistently overpower Svitolina. The quick conditions in Melbourne will help Azarenka’s mission in this matchup.
Prediction: Azarenka in 2
Jakub:
2012 and 2013 Australian Open champion Azarenka is coming into a very exciting third-round clash in great form. The Belarusian dismissed Panna Udvardy and Jil Teichmann, dropping just seven games in the process with Svitolina up next. The Ukrainian came into Melbourne winless with two losses, but advanced past the French duo of Fiona Ferro and Harmony Tan in the first two rounds. Azarenka leads the head-to-head 4-0 and though Svitolina’s strong retrieving skills will not make it easy, I expect the two-time champion to keep on marching in Melbourne.
Prediction: Azarenka in 3
[pickup_prop id=”18819″]
Madison Keys vs Qiang Wang
Jim:
How far can Madison Keys go at this year’s Australian Open? A big part of that will depend on how her body holds up, but if she can stay healthy she will take some stopping on the evidence of her season so far. Wang Qiang is a fine player, and she too has looked sharp so far in Melbourne, but it is hard to see her mastering Keys’ formidable power.
Prediction: Keys in 2
Johnny:
Keys is on a roll, but all good things must come to an end. Wang caused a big upset in the first round when she eliminated Cori Gauff and backed it up with a hard-fought three-set win over Alison Van Uytvanck. At her best, Wang is one of the best counter-punchers on tour. Wang loves pace; she absorbs and redirects power better than most. If Wang serves well and gets into enough rallies in the Keys service games, she will be solid enough from the back of the court to cause an upset.
Prediction: Wang in 3
Jakub:
Keys won what was probably the most exciting match-up of the first round, taking out 2020 champion Sofia Kenin. The 26-year-old then followed the upset up with a straight-set win over Jacqueline Cristian and improved her record to 8-1 in 2022. Wang pulled off one of the most surprising upsets of the first round, beating the 18th seed Coco Gauff. Her second round was less impressive as she wasn’t far from losing to Alison Van Uytvanck. Keys is the favorite for me, though Wang might surprise once again.
Prediction: Keys in 2
Ashleigh Barty vs Camila Giorgi
Jim:
Ash Barty hasn’t really been tested yet at the Australian Open. Expect that to change here. Camila Giorgi has the power to take the racquet out of just about anyone’s hands and when she is on song she is hard to live with. The problem for the Italian is that she is a rhythm player and Barty excels at disrupting her opponents.
Prediction: Barty in 2
Johnny:
Ash Barty has been totally untroubled through her first couple of matches in Melbourne. Barty recorded straight set wins over Lesia Tsurenko and Lucia Bronzetti where she dropped a combined three games. Barty did as she pleased in those matchups, a luxury she won’t have when she faces Camila Giorgi. The Italian has made a fine start to the tournament herself with straight set wins over Anastasia Potapova and Tereza Martincova. Admit it or not, Barty is under huge pressure at the moment, the weight of a nation is on her shoulders, in the past she hasn’t dealt with that well. Look out If Giorgi is on her game, this could be a huge upset. Barty is still likely to find a way through this one but it probably won’t be easy.
Prediction: Barty in 3
Jakub:
Barty has looked unstoppable so far this year, winning the title in Adelaide and the first two rounds at the Australian Open while dropping just one set. Even more impressively, the top seed has only lost three games in her first two matches in Melbourne against Lesia Tsurenko and Lucia Bronzetti. Her next opponent, 30th seed Camila Giorgi, has also looked good so far in wins over Anastasia Potapova and Tereza Martincova. The Italian is the type of player to take the match out of her opponent’s hands with her hard hitting groundstrokes, but I expect Barty to walk through this match on her current form.
Prediction: Barty in 2
Main Photo from Getty.
