The key word for this section of the Australian Open draw as we arrive at the third round is opportunity, Novak Djokovic’s deportation has created an opportunity for the likes of Alexander Zverev and Matteo Berrettini to make deep runs in Melbourne. We have predictions for every third round match including Rafael Nadal and Reilly Opelka’s matches.
Miomir Kecmanovic vs Lorenzo Sonego
Damian Kust: Miomir Kecmanovic surprised by taking out Tommy Paul, while Lorenzo Sonego exacted revenge on Oscar Otte for their clash at the US Open. The two have a pretty rich history of four meetings with the Italian taking three of them. They hadn’t played since Antalya 2019 though and undeniably, it’s Sonego who’s made more progress since then while Kecmanovic has mostly been stalling. The Italian’s firepower off the serve and both wings should let him be the dominant player in this one. Sonego in 4
Yesh Ginsburg: Kecmanovic has reached the third round, “avenging” Novak Djokovic’s dismissal. He looks better than Sonego so far this tournament, too. The revenge tour will continue. Kecmanovic in 4
Harsh Bhoot: Not the Serb many were expecting to see in the third round. A lot has transpired since the Djokovic visa saga and it’s Kecmanovic who’s carrying the Serbian flag in Melbourne. Sonego is not going to be an easy opponent at all, in fact the Italian starts this match as the slight favorite for me. It’s tough to stop Sonego when he’s on a roll and while Kecmanovic did stretch Sonego in their lone past main draw meeting, expect Sonego to power through here. Sonego in 4
Alexander Zverev vs Radu Albot
Damian: Radu Albot has regained a lot of confidence recently and played very well to qualify and make the third round here. However, there’s very little in his playbook that can hurt Alexander Zverev. The German played a five-setter with him at the US Open in the past, but it seems like his Grand Slam struggles of constantly dropping sets in the early rounds are more or less over. Zverev in 4
Yesh: Zverev looks in absolutely brutal form. Albot has nothing that can touch him. Zverev in 3
Harsh: Zverev looked scary good at times while still showing remnants of his 2019 self where he lost all confidence in his second serve. Hopefully for the German he can subdue his 2019 self because his best game is an absolute treat to watch. Albot has done well to reach the third round but should be overpowered on all fronts. Zverev in 3
Adrian Mannarino vs Aslan Karatsev
Damian: After hitting 107 unforced errors to defeat Jaume Munar, Aslan Karatsev cleaned up his game for the second round. Adrian Mannarino was able to remind Hubert Hurkacz of how tricky of an opponent he is. The Russian seems better equipped to tackle Mannarino than the Pole was as he loves injecting pace from the baseline and deals well with low, flat balls. It seems like this should be mostly dependent on Karatsev’s level. Karatsev in 4
Yesh: Mannarino looked to be in his strong form from a few years ago. The Frenchman was incredibly impressive in taking out a Top 10 Hubert Hurkacz. Karatsev hasn’t been great this week, which is good news for Mannarino. Mannarino in 4
Harsh: Karatsev seems to be settling in as his matches go on. The Russian has started slowly in both his matches but as soon as finds his range not many can contend with him. Mannarino will likely capitalize on a slow start as the Frenchman can keep his groundstrokes flat and throw the Russian off his rhythm but as soon as Karatsev finds his feet it’ll be one way traffic. Karatsev in 4
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Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Berrettini
Damian: This should be a cracker. They met in Vienna last year with Carlos Alcaraz prevailing after a deciding tie-break. The Spaniard is yet to drop a set here and while his path was probably easier than Matteo Berrettini’s, he’s looked extremely dangerous. His opponent’s game had some sketchy moments, whether due to gastric problems against Brandon Nakashima or struggling to deal with Stefan Kozlov’s off-pace style. Lots can depend on whether Alcaraz can hold serve as easily as in their Vienna match. He needs to try to expose Berrettini’s backhand liabilities and to do that he’ll need to stay very aggressive. He might have a slight edge. Alcaraz in 5
Yesh: This should be a blockbuster matchup. Berrettini needs to find his form, otherwise the young Spaniard will find himself in the midst of another breakout run. Berrettini in 5
Harsh: What a treat this is going to be. Berrettini is in real danger here. The Italian on most days can protect his backhand but against a solid baseliner like Alcaraz, he’s going to struggle. The young Spaniard won their lone past meeting and should be extremely confident of his chances. Expect a titanic battle with Berrettini using his forehand to dictate points but unable to land the winning blow. Alcaraz in 5
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