WTA Adelaide Quarterfinal Predictions including Ashleigh Barty vs Sofia Kenin

Ashleigh Barty in action ahead of the WTA Charleston Open.
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A really exciting lineup in the quarterfinals at WTA Adelaide. Four of the remaining eight are Grand Slam champions, but all four of them are in the same half of the draw! Who will meet in the semifinals?

WTA Adelaide Quarterfinal Predictions

Misaki Doi vs Kaja Juvan

Head-to-head: First meeting

By the numbers Juvan is the clear favorite here. Though they have never met before Juvan has the edge on service hold % and break % on hard courts in the last twelve months on the WTA Tour. Not only that but I believe that the Slovenian is a real talent that will have a breakthrough 2022. Her display against Aryna Sabalenka in the last round showed character and skill and though Doi was impressive against Gasanova it is the Slovenian that looks the better player at this stage.
Prediction: Juvan in 2

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Elena Rybakina vs Shelby Rogers

Head-to-head: Rybakina 2-1 Rogers

These two share an interesting recent head-to-head series. Rogers beat Rybakina at the US Open in 2020 but the Kazakh took revenge in the grass season in the following season at Berlin and Wimbledon. Rogers won the first three sets against Rybakina but the last three have gone decisively the other way.

Either Rybakina has worked out how to play against Rogers or the grass was a decisive factor. Rogers beat Sakkari in the last round here and is always dangerous on a hard court so I expect this to be a close match. However, I think that Rybakina has the higher ceiling of the two and if both play well I give the Kazakh the edge.
Prediction: Rybakina in 3

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Victoria Azarenka vs Iga Swiatek

Head-to-head: Azarenka 1-0 Swiatek

The only previous meeting of the pair was at the US Open in 2020 where Azarenka reached the final. A fantastic performance on that occasion saw her sweep aside the Pole, but that may not be the case here in Adelaide.

Swiatek is unbeaten here with seven wins from seven matches and none of them have been for the loss of four games or more. It is a remarkable record but typical of the Pole in that when she feels comfortable on a court she can be utterly dominant.

I don’t expect either woman to dominate the whole match here. Azarenka has much the better return statistics, breaking 47% of return games in the last twelve months on hard court, but Swiatek has a stronger serve record than the Belarussian. Weighing up all of the form lines and throwing in some gut feeling I think that Azarenka is in terrific form and is, ultimately, a slightly better hard court player than Swiatek so I will come down on her side.
Prediction: Azarenka in 3

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Ashleigh Barty vs Sofia Kenin

Head-to-head: Barty 4-2 Kenin

A replay of the 2020 Australian Open semifinal where Kenin broke Aussie hearts by defeating Barty in two very tight sets. That remains their last meeting but before that Barty had held the upper hand in the previous meetings, albeit many were decided in close sets.

Both women produced comeback victories in the last round against Coco Gauff and Alja Tomljanovic respectively. They did so in very similar fashion as well by grinding out a middle set and then riding that wave to a more comfortable third set win. In this match I expect Barty to look like the better player throughout most of the match, but Kenin will stay in it and grind away and expose any weaknesses Barty might display.

This may well go the distance as well but Barty is the deserving favorite to gain revenge on Kenin and I would back her to do so.
Prediction: Barty in 3

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