Hopefully for this match and the Turin crowd at the ATP Finals, the sister article to this one focusing on Alexander Zverev vs Hubert Hurkacz is incorrect. If Jannik Sinner can still qualify then it gives an extra edge to this match, but can he do so?
ATP Finals Day 5 Prediction
Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner
Head-to-Head Record: Medvedev 2-0 Sinner
On numerous occasions we have seen the scenario of a player who has already qualified playing a dead rubber for them. In 2019, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Dominic Thiem has won two out of two, and both went on to lose their third matches. In 2018, Kevin Anderson did the same thing, but Novak Djokovic (of course) did win his third match. Over in Guadalajara at the moment the WTA Finals, in the same format, saw both Paula Badosa and Anett Kontaveit lose their third matches after qualifying in two.
This is quite a convincing narrative then to propose that Daniil Medvedev might well go on to lose this match. Sinner may or may not be able to qualify depending on the earlier result, but I’m not sure it sways my opinion on the overall result here. If the Italian can’t qualify I think that the home crowd will spur him on enough to make this matter for the youngster, and it takes the pressure off in the match winning situation.
The problem is that in four out of the five sets this pair have completed Medvedev has won them comfortably. Both matches were in indoor hard conditions as well so the form is relevant. Medvedev has been able to get onto Sinner’s service too easy in the past and is usually too strong on serve for the young Italian.
So the key is working out how much Medvedev will want to win this match. I think he will want to win it, but won’t dig deep to do so. If the Russian loses the opening set I think Sinner should be able to win the whole match. However, on the surface of Turin I can’t see Medvedev being broken so I am going to predict that Medvedev wins the first set and goes on to complete the victory.
Prediction: Medvedev in 2
Main Photo from Getty.