ATP Finals Day 4 Prediction: Andrey Rublev vs Novak Djokovic

Novak Djokovic in action at the ATP Paris Masters.

The ATP Finals are back for another day of exciting tennis action and the action in Turin is heating up on Day 4! In the first match of the day, Novak Djokovic takes on Andrey Rublev in a battle of first-match winners. Who will win and who will fall short? Read on for my best guess!

ATP Finals Day 4 Prediction

Novak Djokovic vs Andrey Rublev

Head to Head: never played

Novak Djokovic survived a tough challenge from Casper Ruud in his first match in Turin. The Serb came back from *1-3 down in the first set to win 7-6(4), 6-2. Djokovic defended against Ruud’s huge forehand well, put a lot of pressure on the Norwegian’s serve, and was a monster on his first serve. Djokovic won 90% of first serve points and 77% of his service points overall while h0ld Ruud to 63% of his service points won and 55% service points won overall.

Andrey Rublev beat Stefanos Tsitispas in straight sets to take a 1-0 record into this match with Djokovic. Rublev, like Djokovic, won 90% of his first-serve points, but unlike Djokovic, didn’t even face a break point. Rublev will need to serve like this and have his baseline game as sharp as it was against Tsitsipas to stay with Djokovic.

Surprisingly, these two have never played before. I just fail to see how Rublev will stay with Djokovic in this one. Yes, their first-serve win percentage from the first match was similar, but Djokovic had a higher percentage of first serves in (74% versus 68%), he won a higher percentage of second serves (43% versus 32%), and he was facing the better returner of the two. Not to mention that Djokovic is up there among the most clutch servers of all time.

Embed from Getty Images

From the baseline, there’s nothing Rublev does better than Djokovic. Sure, Rublev has a great forehand and a lot of pop on his groundstrokes, but Djokovic counterpunches so well and can turn points around so quickly. Djokovic also has better variety and is more precise with his serve and groundstrokes.

In short, Novak Djokovic should win this match without too many problems.
Prediction: Djokovic in 2

Main Photo from Getty.


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