We have reached the semifinal round of the ATP NextGen Finals. Will Carlos Alcaraz cement his favorite status? Or will someone else break through as a future star? There’s an all-American matchup in the other semifinal as well.
ATP NextGen Finals Semifinal Predictions
Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez
Head-to-head: first meeting
The 18-year-old Alcaraz dominated his group, dropping only one set in matches against Holger Rune, Juan Manuel Cerundolo, and Brandon Nakashima. The Spaniard looked unbeatable at points and even his serve, which was pointed out as a potential weakness on indoor hard, has been stellar.
Baez is definitely the surprise semifinalist out of the bunch here. The Argentine certainly took a huge step forward this season, approaching the Top 100, but played only one match on indoor hard coming into this tournament. From his first match in Milan though, Baez showed that he didn’t just show up to collect the appearance fee, upsetting homecrowd favorite Lorenzo Musetti. He was then bested by Sebastian Korda but bounced back with a straight-set victory over Hugo Gaston that sealed his advancing from the group.
Baez has been impressive in Milan, but I can’t see him outrallying Alcaraz here. If the Spaniard keeps his level high, it’s hard to see him even dropping a set here.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 3
Sebastian Korda vs Brandon Nakashima
Head-to-head: first meeting
Korda confirmed his position as the second seed in the tournament throughout the group stages with three wins. The young American lost his first two sets in Milan to Gaston but hasn’t dropped one since. Korda completed a comeback win over the Frenchman and pulled off straight-set wins over Baez and Musetti.
His opponent, Brandon Nakashima, came into Milan as the most in-form player from the field and he did not disappoint in the group stages. The 20-year-old impressed in wins over Holger Rune and Juan Manuel Cerundolo but Alcaraz was past his limits. Nakashima is still 11-2 in his last 13 matches and will be looking for a rematch against the Spaniard in the final.
Korda and Nakashima are two of the brightest young stars the United States has to offer in men’s tennis, so their first meeting is certainly a must-watch. I expect to see these two to match up a lot in big spots over the next decade, and though it is essentially a coinflip here, I think Nakashima will edge this one.
Prediction: Nakashima in 5
Main Photo from Getty.
