In what promises to be a thrilling final, the top two seeds at the ATP Paris Masters – Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev – are set to meet for the title. It will be their first meeting since Medvedev ended Djokovic’s bid to complete the Calendar Slam at the US Open and offers the Serbian a chance to avenge that painful defeat. As ever, we here at LWOT are offering our prediction. But who will come out on top in Bercy?
ATP Paris Masters Final Prediction
Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev
Head-to-head: Djokovic 5-4 Medvedev
There has been very little to split this pair so far in their rivalry. Djokovic has a narrow 5-4 advantage in the head-to-head after winning their first three matches, but Medvedev has been a troublesome opponent for the world #1 of late. Even discounting the one-sided defeat Djokovic suffered in the US Open final, where the pressure of the occasion seemed to overcome him, Medvedev dismissed him at the ATP Finals last season, and has also beaten him in Cincinnati and Monaco.
The Russian also comes into this match in fine form. He opened his campaign at the ATP Paris Masters, after a first-round bye, with a solid 6-4 7-5 win over Ilya Ivashka and he backed that up by rallying from a set down to beat Sebastian Korda 4-6 6-1 6-3. That set up a quarterfinal clash with Hugo Gaston which he won 7-6 6-4. He then thrashed the in-form Alexander Zverev 6-2 6-2 to reach his sixth final of the season. He has won four of the previous five.
Djokovic, who also enjoyed a first-round bye, began his tournament against Marton Fucsovics. He made a quick start to the match only for the Hungarian to peg him back. But Djokovic dug deep to win the match in three sets. He then benefitted from Gael Monfils retirement, before dispatching Taylor Fritz 6-3 6-4 in the quarterfinals. He was given a sterner test in the semifinals by Hubert Hurkacz, but despite surrendering a lead in the decider, Djokovic edged out the Hungarian 3-6 6-0 7-6.
However, it is a concern that two of Djokovic’s three wins this week have come more because of his relentless self-belief and the aura his great career has built than because of the quality of his tennis. Against most players, he does not need to be at his very best to win, but if Medvedev is playing well then nothing but Djokovic’s best will suffice. And so far in Paris, Medvedev has looked the better player. Djokovic can win this match, but right now, it looks like Medvedev will win this match.
Prediction: Medvedev in 3
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