There should be plenty of entertaining action on quarterfinal day at the ATP San Diego Open with four intriguing matches on the slate in California. As always, we here at LWOT will be offering our predictions for every match on the schedule, but who will book their place in the last four?
ATP San Diego Quarterfinal Predictions
Andrey Rublev vs Diego Schwartzman
Head-to-head: Rublev 1-1 Schwartzman
To say that Andrey Rublev is playing exceptionally well right now would probably be an understatement. His second-round opponent Brandon Nakashima couldn’t hold a candle to him in terms of aggression. Rublev is wasting no opportunity here, converting backhands into ferocious forehand winners. His accuracy off the ground has been near perfect and his backhand is firing to great effect. In one match, rather one set, Rublev proved why he is the first seed here, and the world #5.
Diego Schwartzman, meanwhile, completed a superb comeback against Lloyd Harris in his second-round match. Schwartzman was a set and break down, but managed to turn the match around from there. Though he was often under pressure, he was able to hang on and ultimately managed to contain Harris’ firepower to win 4-6 6-3 6-2. But whether he will be able to the same against Rublev is a big question mark.
The pair has played twice before, and the head-to-head stands level at one win apiece. Their latest meeting came at the Laver Cup, where Rublev edged Schwartzman out 11-9 in the deciding set tiebreak. That shows why is difficult to write off Schwartzman on any surface, even if Rublev is rightly the favourite. The Argentine gives nothing away from the baseline, and his mental strength is something else. But keeping this competitive might be the best he can do, with Rublev looking in no mood to stop attacking.
Prediction: Rublev in 3
Embed from Getty Images
Denis Shapovalov vs Cameron Norrie
Head-to-head: Norrie 1-0 Shapovalov
Denis Shapovalov ousted Taylor Fritz in straight sets in his second-round match. After a slow start, the Canadian did very well to overcome his initial rustiness and come into his own in the second set, eventually securing a 7-6 6-2 win. He was slightly inconsistent on serve: he faced seven break points and hit four double faults. But the fact that he saved six of those break points will surely have instilled some fresh belief in the Canadian, who had been struggling for form since his semifinal run at Wimbledon. He will be hoping to continue his resurgence here.
Cameron Norrie defeated his countryman Daniel Evans in the second round. The match lasted two hours, but the scoreline was pretty straightforward. Norrie served six aces and was broken just once in 7-6 6-3. Though he hasn’t looking unstoppable by any means, he also hasn’t dropped a set in two matches against potentially dangerous opponents in Dominik Koepfer and Evans. The pair have contested one match before, on grass in the semifinals at the Queen’s Club Championship. Norrie won that match straight sets, but expect the result to be different this time around. Norrie isn’t playing his best tennis, and Shapovalov has the quality to take advantage. Still, it should be a three-setter.
Prediction: Shapovalov in 3
Embed from Getty Images
Lorenzo Sonego vs Casper Ruud
Head-to-head: Ruud 1-0 Sonego
In his second-round match at the ATP San Diego Open, Lorenzo Sonego scored a convincing win over local favorite Sebastian Korda. Sonego struck seven aces in the match and saved six out of the seven break points he faced. Korda had been playing well coming into the match so a straight-sets win over him should bolster Sonego’s confidence going into what looks likely to be a difficult match for the Italian.
Casper Ruud opened his campaign by defeated wildcard Andy Murray in the second round. Murray came into the match after a comfortable victory over Dennis Kudla, but he proved unable to replicate the feat against Ruud, who advanced a 7-5 6-4 winner. It was an excellent win for Ruud, who thought still at his best on the clay, has made impressive strides on hard courts recently, reaching back-to-back quarterfinals in Toronto and Cincinnati.
The pair have met once before, at the ATP Rome Masters last season. On clay, Ruud was clearly the better player, and he won the match in straight sets. A year and a half later, both players have had their breakthroughs, but Ruud is still probably the better player, even on the fast hard courts of the USA which may have balanced the odds. Expect Ruud to scrape through all the same. After all, he isn’t the world #10 for nothing.
Prediction: Ruud in 3
Embed from Getty Images
Aslan Karatsev vs Grigor Dimitrov
Head-to-head: Karatsev 1-0 Dimitrov
Aslan Karatsev, after a long period of indifferent from, pulled off another big upset by defeating fifth seed and world #12 Hubert Hurkacz in a tiring three-set match to snap the ATP Metz Open champion’s winning streak. His return of serve – along with the way he came back from a set down – will be the biggest positive for Karatsev, as he broke the big-serving Pole four times in the match. Karatsev may well now be dreaming of adding a third trophy to his cabinet.
First he will have to get past Grigor Dimitrov. The Bulgarian was drawn to face Canada’s Felix Auger-Aliassime in the second round, but due to the world #11’s withdrawal, came up against lucky loser August Holmgren. The ATP #901 was no match for Dimitrov and was thrashed 6-1 6-1 in a match that lasted 56 minutes. In the second set, Dimitrov lost just a single point on serve such was his dominance. But it is hard to imagine him dominating Karatsev like this.
The two have met before, at the Australian Open, when Karatsev was enjoying his time under the sun and beat an injured Dimitrov in the last eight. Nine months later, the limelight has been eluding Karatsev, though he comes into this match ranked higher than Dimitrov. Karatsev is the favourite due to his current form, but you never know with Dimitrov.
Even against a player ranked as low as Holmgren, his second-round performance will surely have boosted his confidence whilst Karatsev has suffered some morale-destroying losses recently. But if he is back to his destructive best, King Aslan–as he has been fondly called by fans–should have enough to hit through Dimitrov and into the semifinals.
Prediction: Karatsev in 3
Main photo:
Embed from Getty Images
