It’s been a stellar three days of tennis at the WTA Montreal Open and the excitement should continue on day four with eight third-round matches on the slate. As always, we here at LWOT will be offering our predictions for every scheduled match, including Victoria Azarenka vs Maria Sakkari. But who will reach the quarterfinals in Quebec?
WTA Montreal Day 4 Predictions
Karolina Pliskova vs Amanda Anisimova
Head-to-head: Anisimova 0-2 Pliskova
Amanda Anisimova has been playing relatively inconsistently. It’s hard to know if she’ll take the court with confidence wielding the easy power which can leave her opponents helpless or, as if a switch has been flipped a switch, rack up an unforced error count shockingly high, basically giving away the match. Unfortunately, this has been a year hallmarked by early exits and Anisimova has reached only one quarterfinal so far.
Standing between her and a place in the quarterfinals in Montreal is Karolina Pliskova is a strong adversary, who’s been in good form – barring a disappointing Olympics. Yet, the Czech sometimes loses what seem like the easiest of matches. In her marathon match against Donna Vekic in the second round in Montreal, Pliskova hit 15 aces but she also committed nine double faults.
Another below-par first-serve percentage (she made just 56% of her first serves against Vekic) will give Anisimova plenty of break point opportunities. The difficulty comes in converting those. I certainly don’t expect to see Pliskova in the finals, event after her excellent showing at Wimbledon, but I think she’s bound for the quarterfinals in Montreal.
Prediction: Pliskova in 3
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Cori Gauff vs Johanna Konta
Head-to-head: Gauff 1-0 Konta
Johanna Konta’s big serve and big forehand shouldn’t be too much for Cori Gauff to handle. The American teen is already one of the best movers on the court. Maybe it’s her youth, maybe it’s just natural ability, but either way it’s pretty hard to get the ball past Gauff. The weakness in the American’s game is her serve.
If she can keep her first serve percentage at least in the 70s, she should have the edge over the Briton – who has not had a particularly impressive season even if she has found some form so far in Montreal. If the double faults start creeping in, however, and her confidence wanes, Konta might quickly run away with this one. But Gauff has been serving well so far this week and there seems to be little reason to expect that to change here.
Prediction: Gauff in 2
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Danielle Collins vs Jessica Pegula
Head-to-head: Pegula 2-0 Collins
Jessica Pegula may lead the head-to-head, but she was playing against a very different version of Danielle Collins than the one who will be waiting for her across the net at the WTA Montreal Open. Pegula’s two wins came in 2012 and 2016, some years before Collins began playing regularly on the WTA Tour, and we’ve seen Collins improve considerably since then. Collins’ battling spirit also ensures she is always tough to beat, as her last 12 opponents have discovered to their cost.
But Pegula is a very smart player and she has the useful ability to select the shots that do the most damage. Against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova’s power, the American was able to counterpunch effectively and frustrate the Russian. So whilst the head-to-head shouldn’t be given too much weight, Pegula’s determination should. Clever strategy and the ability to absorb Collins’ power will make this a protracted battle. Expect this clash to go the distance, but it’s hard to argue against Pegula.
Prediction: Pegula in 3
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Ons Jabeur vs Bianca Andreescu
Head-to-head: First meeting
In her opener, Bianca Andreescu was able to find a way to get past Harriet Dart, despite playing less than her best tennis. The considerable amount of time she has spent off-court was evident throughout that match, but the three-set skirmish should have helped her shake off some of the rust. Still, it remains too soon to expect Andreescu to be back to her very best.
Her variety remains, but a rash of unforced errors gave Dart the opening she needed to claim the second set and that is something Andreescu will have to avoid against Ons Jabeur – a more dangerous opponent by several degrees. That said, Jabeur did benefit from the support of the crowd in her own three-set battle in the second round, something she will not be able to rely on against Andreescu.
Nor should Jabeur expect to be able to keep Andreescu on the backfoot to the same extent as she did Daria Kasatkina. The Canadian can easily turn defense into offense with a single shot. That said, when the Tunisian is hitting her powerful forehand to the lines, that probably won’t matter much. It’s hard to predict who will win with the narrowest of margins separating Andreescu and Jabeur. But the Tunisian in better form and has a lot more matches under her belt. She should have the edge.
Prediction: Jabeur in 3
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