ATP Umag Final Prediction – Richard Gasquet vs Carlos Alcaraz

Richard Gasquet in action ahead of the ATP Umag Open.
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It will be a battle between youth and experience at the ATP Umag Open, with Richard Gasquet playing in his 32nd ATP final and Carlos Alcaraz his first. But both men have looked sharp so far this week in Croatia and both will surely be desperate to lay their hands on the trophy. But who will come out on top?

ATP Umag Open Final Prediction

Richard Gasquet vs Carlos Alcaraz

Head-to-head: first meeting

Gasquet has struggled for much of this season, with injuries once again not helping the Frenchman’s cause. He did reach the second round at both the French Open, but had the misfortune to run into Rafael Nadal in Paris and Roger Federer in London, both of whom beat him in straight-sets. He returned to action after defeat at the All England Club in Bastad but was beaten there in the first round by Marco Cecchinato in three hard-fought sets.

However, he has turned things around at the ATP Umag Open in fine style. After a first-round bye, he opened his campaign in Croatia with a 7-6 6-4 win over Alessandro Giannessi and backed that up by beating Damir Dzumhur, also in straight sets. That set up a semifinal clash with the German qualifier Daniel Altmaier, who last year made headlines with a run to the fourth round at the French Open. Altmaier had his moments, but Gasquet’s experience ultimately prevailed as he won 7-6 2-6 6-3.

Alcaraz, meanwhile, is still finding his feet on the main tour. But he has had an impressive season overall and arrived at the ATP Umag Open with a 10-10 record for the season at tour-level. Prior to this week, his best effort for the year was his run through the qualifying to the third round at the French Open, along with reaching the semifinals at the ATP Andalucia Open and winning a Challenger title in Oeiras, where he beat Facundo Bagnis in the final.

He has had to work hard for his place in the final in Umag. He started his tournament by rallying past former-world #10 Lucas Pouille, before thrashing Andrej Martin for the loss of only four games to reach the quarterfinals. There he proved too strong for Hamburg runner-up Filip Krajinovic, beating the Serbian 7-6 2-6 6-1. Alcaraz then scored his second victory over Albert Ramos Vinolas in as many meetings to reach his first tour-level final.

It is one he looks to have a good chance of winning. Gasquet has rolled back the years this week, but the Frenchman is not the force he once was. Particularly troubling is the fact that he has lost half-a-step around the court without compensating for that by adopting a more aggressive style. He has also historically struggled against players who can generate heavy topspin and force him to hit backhands above his shoulder. Alcaraz may not quite have Nadal’s ability in that department, but he should still be able to cause Gasquet real problems.

Prediction: Alcaraz in 3

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