The post-Wimbledon clay season is here! It’s been fascinating watching the grass-court action unfold, but Bastad will provide a welcomed attraction for the clay courters on the ATP Tour! Who will get a step closer to the title and who will fall short? Read on for my best guesses! We also predict the rest of the day’s matches, in two other articles. One features Henri Laaksonen vs Lorenzo Musetti, and the other highlights Pedro Martinez vs Dennis Novak.
ATP Bastad Day 2 Predictions
Facundo Bagnis vs Roberto Carballes Baena
Head to Head: 2-1 Carballes Baena
Facundo Bagnis won the 14th clay-court Challenger title of his career against Federico Coria on Sunday. Bagnis’ ability to hit with consistency and depth on his backhand side complemented his heavy, lefty forehand perfectly. Roberto Carballes Baena is a stereotypical clay-court player and puts a lot of balls in play with good depth, but doesn’t have the power to hit through most opponents.
Carballes Baena leads the head to head 2-1 (all on clay), although they haven’t played since 2019. Carballes Baena will be relying on baiting Bagnis into longer rallies and hoping the Argentinian overhits. However, fatigue is never a good thing against a player as physical as Carballes Baena and the Spaniard will be putting a lot of pressure on his backhand. Bagnis’ backhand held up against Coria, but against another phyiscal opponent, can he keep it together? I doubt it.
Prediction: Carballes Baena in 3
Francisco Cerundolo vs Federico Coria
Head to Head: tied 2-2
Francisco Cerundolo has done well to get through qualifying, including a third-set tiebreak victory over Blaz Rola in the final qualifying round from a break down. Federico Coria has having a run of good form. Since the start of June, Coria has made three clay-court Challenger finals and won one title. Last week in Salzburg, Coria made the final before losing in three sets to Facundo Bagnis. Bagnis was the only player all week to win more than 50% of his second-serve points against Coria.
The head to head is tied 2-2, with all matches occurring on clay. They’ve split their two meetings this season 1-1. Cerundolo’s forehand is the biggest weapon on the court and neither player has a big serve. However, Cerundolo has not been hitting his forehand with nearly the same precision that he did earlier this season and his backhand is a liability. Coria is steady from the baseline and ramps up the aggression on his forehand when he can. Expect Coria to grind Cerundolo down in this one.
Prediction: Coria in 2
Emil Ruusuvuori vs Mikael Ymer
Head to Head: Ruusuvuori leads 1-0
Emil Ruusuvuori is going through a tough stretch of form. Ruusuvuori has only won two of his last ten matches. Mikael Ymer did well to make the second round of Wimbledon, but he’s best on the red dirt. Ymer’s heavy forehand, great movement, and counterpunching acumen make him a nightmare to play on the clay.
Ruusuvuori leads the head to head 1-0, having won a matchup earlier this season in Miami. In that match, Ymer only won 52% of his first-serve points and 35% of his second-serve points. On Ymer’s best surface, I would expect him to be better able to serve well, as he would be better able to blunt the power that Ruusuvuori would bring to the table on return. Ruusuvuori like to that the initiative in points with both a bigger serve and huge forehand. However, his rally tolerance is not good at this point and, with the home crowd behind Ymer, I expect the Swede to just have too much depth and consistency for Ruusuvuori to handle.
Prediction: Ymer in 3
Main Photo from Getty.
