Wimbledon Men’s Singles: Draw Preview and Analysis

Novak Djokovic Wimbledon

The All England Club will open the gates and the turnstiles for the 134th staging of the Wimbledon Championships – almost two years since Novak Djokovic defeated Roger Federer to win his fifth title at SW19.

This year, unlike in previous Wimbledon editions, will be unique in so many ways. First, tickets for the event will be sold online only, meaning the organizers will get rid of the customary famous queue for on-site ticket purchase. Fans who secured tickets through the public ballot for the cancelled tournament last year will be given an opportunity to purchase the same tickets for 2022.

Wimbledon has also revised its seeding formula. The chief organizers at the All England Lawn Tennis Club have decided that the grass-court seeding formula used since 2002 has served its time, and from 2021, the tournament will use the ATP rankings only in seeding the players.

On that note, here is how the draw of the 2021 Wimbledon men’s singles draw could pan out.

Wimbledon Men’s Singles Draw Analysis

Top half, first quarter: Djokovic begins a quest for a three-peat in a harmless quarter

Defending champion Novak Djokovic is on course to make history. The Serbian star clinched a second French Open title in Paris just a few weeks ago to move within touching distance on the all-time Grand Slam record of 20 titles, shared by Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal. The Spaniard made a surprise decision to skip the grass-court Slam and the Olympic games after losing his grip on the French Open title. Djokovic with 19 Majors, is targetting a calendar-year Grand Slam.

As is the norm for the champion, Djokovic will open proceedings on the pristine grass on Centre Court at the stroke of one o’clock on Monday. He will play the talented British wild card, Jack Draper. The 19-year-old produced a ground-breaking week at Queen’s last week when he won his maiden tour-level match en route to the quarterfinals.

However, Draper’s health is cause for concern at this embryonic stage of his career, with three retirements already this season. That includes a horrific midmatch collapse at the Miami Masters due to a heat-related illness. Djokovic has warmed up nicely for the grass after a productive week in Mallorca playing doubles. The World No. 1 should progress without any lingering doubt and could take on Kevin Anderson in a repeat of 2018 final which Djokovic won in straight sets.

But the South African will have a tough outing against the 23-year-old Chilean qualifier Marcelo Barrios Vera, who beat the top-seeded qualifier Kamil Majchrzak in the final round of qualifying to make the main draw.

Should the seedings hold, Djokovic could play Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the third round, and Gael Monfils – seeded at a surprisingly high of 13th – in the fourth round. But the Frenchman has been woefully short in confidence and wins this term, and Davidovich Fokina is not a force to be reckoned with on the lawns as he is on clay. So do not be entirely surprised to see different opposition in Djokovic’s path to the last eight.

The five-time champion is projected to meet Russia’s Andrey Rublev in the quarterfinal. The pair have never faced each other before and it will be an intriguing clash of styles if it happens.

Rublev will need to navigate his way past a rolling parade of established clay-courters in his half including Fabio Fognini, Albert Ramos Vinolas, Pablo Cuevas, and Laslo Djere. He opens up against Federico Delbonis – the Argentine lefthander who has not won a single match outside clay in 2021. Then he could face a potential upset in the second round against the big-serving Lloyd Harris of South Africa. Rublev has never gone beyond the second round at Wimbledon in his previous four visits.

Elsewhere, Italy’s Jannik Sinner is a name that excites in this quarter and will have his eyes on Rublev in the fourth round. Granted the 19-year-old failed to make an impression at Queen’s Club last week (falling to Jack Draper in the opening round), his penetrative groundstrokes could click his game into gear.

Sinner could meet Diego Schwartzman in the third round, but the diminutive Argentine could have his hands full against the unpredictable Benoit Paire. The Frenchman is a man capable of throwing the kitchen sink when you least expect it.

Predicted quarterfinal: Novak Djokovic (1) vs Jannik Sinner (19)

Top half, second quarter: Tsitsipas targets another deep run, with a slew of dangerous floaters looming large

Stefanos Tsitsipas came within a set of winning his maiden Grand Slam title at Roland Garros earlier this month before Novak Djokovic snatched the title from his grasp.

The Greek will be keen to put the disappointment of losing that final when he starts his Wimbledon campaign against Frances Tiafoe. This could very much be an early popcorn match at the tournament and Tsitsipas will need to maintain his focus for the entire day. Tiafoe has been in great touch lately, highlighted by a run to the Nottingham Challenger title, and a quarterfinal showing at Queen’s.

The third seed has not lost to Tiafoe in three previous meetings and should be a clear favourite to extend that winning sequence.

Moving on, number 22 seed Dan Evans will carry British hopes in the men’s singles draw. The man from West Midlands does not have a cushy opener though, as he is scheduled to play Feliciano Lopez. But Evans’ career has blossomed brilliantly in the last 18 months and is widely expected to beat the veteran Spaniard.

There is a notable mention in this quarter, and that is Zhang Zhizhen. The 24-year-old ranked 178 in the world rankings, is the first Chinese man to qualify for the Wimbledon men’s singles main draw in the Open Era. In his fourth attempt to qualify for a Grand Slam main draw, Zhang got the better of Francisco Cerundolo to advance. He will play fellow qualifier, Antoine Hoang, in a winnable first round. Should Zhang etch his name in Chinese tennis folklore with another win, he will play the winner of an exciting encounter between Sebastian Korda and Alex De Minaur.

Two-time champion Andy Murray admitted this could be his last Wimbledon. And the Scot will be determined to leave a lasting impression when he marks his return to the lawns of the All England Club for the first time since 2017. Murray has drawn Georgia’s No. 24 seed Nikoloz Basilashvil in the first round. Basilashvili is a man synonymous with throwing in the towel occasionally and tends to be erratic when his opposition injects pace in rallies – something Murray does with aplomb.

Bottom half, third quarter: In-form Berrettini tipped to go all the way

This could potentially be the most enticing quarter as far as headline-grabbing stories go. Italy’s Matteo Berrettini, seeded seventh, is among the top five players tipped to win the title this fortnight, according to the oddsmakers. The man from the Eternal city won Wimbledon’s preliminary event – Queen’s – dropping just one set all week. He starts against the 2019 quarterfinalist Guido Pella in the first round. Pella has had a broadly disappointing time on tour in 2021, winning a measly three matches all year, and arrives at Wimbledon on a four-match losing streak. The Italian should progress without breaking a sweat.

And aside from a potential duel with John Isner in the third round, the number seven seed is likely to roll into the second week.

Berrettini reached the quarterfinals of the French Open over two weeks ago, and the spotlight couldn’t have shone any brighter towards him at SW19.

The 25-year-old could meet Alexander Zverev in the fourth round – the highest-seeded player he is likely to face before the quarterfinals.

Zverev opens up against the Dutch qualifier Tallon Griekspoor who needed to produce a comeback from two sets down in the final round of qualifying to reach his maiden Wimbledon main draw. The German could then play either Tennys Sandgren or Norbert Gombos in the second round, with either Taylor Fritz or Brandon Nakashima potentially awaiting in the third round.

Moving on, Canada’s 16th seed Felix Auger-Aliassime will be buoyed by a tremendous run of results in the past couple of weeks on grass. He reached the finals in Stuttgart, once more stumbling at the last hurdle. But he did beat his childhood idol Roger Federer in Halle the week after, en route to the semifinals.

The 20-year-old has reached the second week of a Grand Slam twice before, and you wouldn’t bet against it not happening this time around.

Auger-Aliassime begins his campaign against the Brazilian clay courter Thiago Monteiro, and will likely play the 35-year-old Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the second round. Tsonga will be making his 12th visit to the All England Club, a scene where he has performed with distinction down the years. However, the Frenchman is very much on his last legs. He is 1-7 for the season and could have his hands full against Sweden’s Mikael Ymer.

This quarter has a humdinger first-round match between Nick Kyrgios and Ugo Humbert. Kyrgios won a tense, nail-biting five-setter against the young Frenchman at this year’s Australian Open in which he saved multiple match points. The Aussie has not played another tournament since, while Humbert won his third career title in Halle, beating the likes of Zverev, Auger-Aliassime and Rublev.

Predicted quarterfinal: Matteo Berrettini (7) vs Alexander Zverev (4)

Bottom half, fourth quarter: All eyes on Federer in a chaotic quarter

It is two years since Roger Federer’s shanked forehand shot culminated in the most heartbreaking defeat of his career. But his failure to convert two match points that preceded it, is something the Swiss hasn’t fully digested. But Federer, at the age of 39, is still optimistic of challenging at his beloved surface. Federer made his comeback from double knee surgery this year, although he is still short in match practice. An eyebrow-raising defeat in Halle to Auger-Aliassime has shifted the mood following a respectable showing at Roland Garros.

Federer begins his quest for an unprecedented ninth title against Adrian Mannarino. The Frenchman’s penchant for fast, slick surfaces makes him a genuine threat for Federer in his opening match. The Swiss could face Richard Gasquet in the second round, with the in-form Brit Cameron Norrie potentially lurking in the third round. On paper, Federer should certainly be contented with the draw, aside from the possible minimal bumps.

Federer’s projected quarterfinal opponent is the Russian Daniil Medvedev. But Medvedev might not make it past a minefield of big-hitters and grass-court campaigners. He starts off against the towering Jan-Lennard Struff in a repeat of their first-round match in Halle which the German won in straight sets.

If Medvedev (who at the time of writing will play in the final in Mallorca) avenges that defeat, he will play the winner of the Carlos Alcaraz and Tommy Paul duel. Then, Marin Cilic might await in the third round. The Croatian is back in the big time after falling from grace in the past few seasons. Cilic has displayed the form that propelled him to the Wimbledon final in 2017, in the buildup to this year’s Championships and could wreak havoc in this section of the draw.

Predicted quarterfinal: Roger Federer (6) vs Marin Cilic (32)

Main photo:
Embed from Getty Images

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