The French Open, the second Grand Slam of the year, is set to begin on Sunday. There are many interesting storylines heading into the men’s singles, with several records up for grabs. Here’s a look at which players you should keep an eye out for:
Nadal aims to win his 14th French Open title
Rafael Nadal is the four-time defending champion and won his 13th French Open title last year demolishing his great rival Novak Djokovic in the final for the loss of just seven games. Nadal returns to Roland Garros this year as the third seed and as had been feared, he was placed in the same half as the top-seeded Djokovic, so if they do meet it will be in the semifinals. Nadal begins his quest for a 14th French Open title against Alexei Popyrin.
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#1 Ranking is up for grabs
Novak Djokovic and second seed Daniil Medvedev will be in contention for the world #1 ranking at this year’s French Open. For Djokovic to be absolutely certain of keeping his place at the top of the rankings, he must win the title as if Medvedev wins in Paris, he will become world #1 for the first time in his career regardless of Djokovic’s performance. Djokovic and Medvedev open their French Open campaigns against Tennis Sandgren and Alexander Bublik respectively.
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The Grand Slam titles race goes on
Nadal and long-time rival Roger Federer, the eighth seed, are currently tied on 20 Grand Slams each. If either of them are victorious in Paris, they will win a record 21st Grand Slam and become the sole leader in the men’s singles Grand Slam titles. Federer’s opening round match will pit him against the qualifier Denis Istomin.
Can any man achieve the ‘Double Career Grand Slam’?
No man has ever achieved the Double Career Grand Slam – winning each of the four Grand Slams on at least two occasions. Both Federer and Djokovic have the opportunity to be the first to achieve that feat if they are victorious in Paris. That should add extra intrigue to their potential quarterfinal meeting, with the illustrious pair in the same quarter of the draw.
Quarterfinal Predictions
[1] Novak Djokovic d. [9] Matteo Berrettini
[3] Rafael Nadal d. [7] Andrey Rublev
[4] Dominic Thiem d. [6] Alexander Zverev
[5] Stefanos Tsitsipas d. [22] Cristian Garin
Semifinal Predictions
[3] Rafael Nadal d. [1] Novak Djokovic
[5] Stefanos Tsitsipas d. [4] Dominic Thiem
Final Prediction
[3] Rafael Nadal d. [5] Stefanos Tsitsipas
Analysis
Of the top eight seeds, six look to be in good position to reach the quarterfinals. The two that seem likely to miss out are [2] Daniil Medvedev and [8] Roger Federer. Federer lost the only match he played on clay this year and has only played a total of three matches in 2021 (with a 1-2 record) so he is extremely rusty. He is projected to meet Berrettini in the fourth round and it is a match that Italian would start as the favourite, given his strong performances on clay this season (a title in Belgrade and a run to the final in Madrid).
Medvedev has never won a match at Roland Garros (in four appearances) and that losing streak looks set to continue with the Russian set to open his campaign against the dangerous Bublik, who reached the quarterfinals in Madrid earlier this month. With Medvedev openly declaring his distaste for the clay in Madrid, it seems unlikely he will be willing or able to grind out a hard-fought win on this surface.
But although Bublik may cause the upset, don’t expect him to reach the quarterfinals. He has yet to display the sort of consistency required for such a run. Instead, expect Garin to be the player to make it out of this section of the draw. The Chilean is at his best on the clay with all six of his ATP finals coming on this surface and he has posted some strong results on the terre battue this season (a title in Santiago and a quarterfinal showing in Madrid).
The semifinal match that almost everyone wants to see is Djokovic against Nadal, which is a repeat of last year’s final and a match-up that has happened more frequently than any in ATP history. Given Nadal’s 100-2 record at the French Open and his victory over Djokovic in the Rome final earlier this month, the Spaniard should have the edge in that match should it come to fruition.
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In the other semifinal, expect Tsitsipas to ‘upset’ Thiem. One uses the term upset loosely here as although Thiem has the pedigree according to their seeding and previous Grand Slam results, Tsitsipas is the man in form. The Greek currently leads the Race to Turin (which is calculated by ranking points gained this season) and he has delivered some superb performances on the clay – winning in Monte-Carlo and Lyon, reaching the final in Barcelona and making last eight in Rome.
Thiem, in contrast, has had a very mediocre clay season by his standards with a 4-3 record, though he did reach the semifinals in Madrid. It appears that Thiem is having a ‘chill year’ after working so hard to finally win a Grand Slam last year at the US Open, with the Austrian looking rather burned out mentally. This looks like an excellent opportunity for Tsitsipas to make his first Grand Slam final as a result.
Given Nadal’s incredible record at the tournament and, after a slow start, good results on clay, he looks to be in good position to pick up his 14th French Open and even more historic 21st Grand Slam title overall. However, Nadal reign may be approaching its end because of one strange factor: the statue. Commemorating a player whilst they are still active can result in a career decline.
Andy Murray, for example, has not reached a Grand Slam final since receiving his knighthood, despite reaching at least one final in six of the seven years prior to the honour. Unlikely as it may sound, do not be surprised if this statue of Nadal on the grounds of Roland Garros, proves to be a symbol for the start of his decline. However, given his history at the tournament and the fact he beat Tsitsipas at in the Barcelona final, give the benefit of doubt to the Spaniard for at least one more year.
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