With 12 matches on the slate, there should be plenty of entertaining action for the fans at the Foro Italico on day three at the ATP Rome Masters. As ever, we here at LWOT will be offering our predictions for every match on the slate, including Pablo Carreno Busta vs Kei Nishikori and Taylor Fritz vs Novak Djokovic. But who will book their place in the last 16?
ATP Rome Masters Day 3 Predictions
Roberto Bautista Agut vs Tommy Paul
Head-to-head: Bautista Agut 1-0 Paul
By the high standards he has set over the last five years or so, it has been a rather disappointing start to 2021 for Roberto Bautista Agut. The Spaniard did reach the semifinals at the ATP Miami Open, but there have been few other highlights for the world #11. However, he may feel confident heading into his opening match at the ATP Rome Masters having beaten Tommy Paul in straight-sets last month in the second round in Monte Carlo.
That said, the American has been playing some good clay-court tennis in recent weeks. He reached the second round in Madrid, where he took a set off Andrey Rublev, and backed that up by beating Juan Ignacio Londero and Thiago Monteiro to successfully negotiate the qualifying in Rome. However, it is hard to see him getting the better of Bautista Agut here. The Spaniard was too solid by half for him in Monte Carlo and a similar outcome looks likely in Rome.
Prediction: Bautista Agut in 2
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Denis Shapovalov vs Kamil Majchrzak
Head-to-head: first meeting
This should be an interesting test for Denis Shapovalov. Although clay is certainly not the Canadian’s best surface, he has shown that he can play on the red dirt, reaching the last four in Madrid in 2018 and at the ATP Rome Masters last season. But Kamil Majchrzak, who beat the in-form Alexei Popyrin and Yuichi Sugita to reach the main draw, can be a tricky opponent. The Pole typically strikes a hard, flat ball, particularly off the backhand wing, that is high risk, high reward.
That being said, Majchrzak is unlikely to win this match by going toe-to-toe with Shapovalov. The Canadian can hurt opponents with both his forehand and his backhand, though there is no doubt that the former is his best shot. He can generate heavy topspin with his forehand which should serve him well in this match by making it harder for Majchrzak to control his attempts to go for winners. The match may still be closer than the disparity between them in the rankings would suggest, but expect Shapovalov to have enough.
Prediction: Shapovalov in 3
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Diego Schwartzman vs Felix Auger-Aliassime
Head-to-head: Schwartzman 1-0 Auger-Aliassime
This is an important match for Diego Schwartzman, particularly with the French Open, where he has semifinal points to defend, looming so large on the horizon. Unfortunately for the Argentine, he does not currently look likely to be arriving in Paris in good form. He did reach the quarterfinals in Barcelona, but that came either side of second-round defeats in Monte Carlo and Madrid. Nor has he been handed a kind draw at the ATP Rome Masters.
The Argentine is set to open his campaign at the Foro Italico against Felix Auger-Aliassime. The Canadian, who recently added Toni Nadal to his coaching staff, has not been in sparkling form either, but he made a solid enough start to his week with a battling three-set win over Filip Krajinovic. However, he lost his only previous match against Schwartzman on an indoor hard court that suited his game better than the slow European clay. Schwartzman should be able to pick up a much-needed win here.
Prediction: Schwartzman in 3
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Aslan Karatsev vs Daniil Medvedev
Head-to-head: Karatsev 2-0 Medvedev
Aslan Karatsev may have beaten Daniil Medvedev in both of their previous meetings, but so much has changed for both men since they last played in 2016 that it feels as though it would be foolish to read too much into past results. Medvedev has established himself as one of the leading lights in the men’s game, although his comments earlier in the season about not enjoying clay-court tennis were borne out at the ATP Madrid Open where he lost in the third round.
Karatsev lost at the same stage, albeit having played a match more, but that should not do too much to diminish what an excellent season the 27-year-old is having. But will he be able to get the better of his countryman? Probably not. Karatsev excels at playing on the front foot, but he can struggle when his rhythm is disrupted and there are few players better at making their opponent uncomfortable than Medvedev. Expect the world #3 to get back to winning ways here.
Prediction: Medvedev in 3
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