There should be plenty of entertaining action on day four at the ATP Monte Carlo Masters, with a number of star names set to join the action in Monaco. As ever, we here at LWOT will be offering our predictions for every match on the slate, including Dan Evans vs Hubert Hurkacz, Salvatore Caruso vs Andrey Rublev, and Rafael Nadal vs Federico Delbonis.
ATP Monte Carlo Masters Day Four Predictions
John Millman vs Cristian Garin
Head-to-head: first meeting
John Millman may not have grown up playing clay-court tennis, but the Australian’s game is nonetheless reasonably well-suited to the terre battue. He covers the court superbly and can generate considerable topspin off the ground, particularly with his forehand. He demonstrated that affinity for the clay in the first round in Monte Carlo to claim a very creditable 6-3 6-3 win over Ugo Humbert, which was his first victory since the ATP Cup.
However, as well as he played in that match, it is hard to see him getting the better of Cristian Garin in their first meeting. The Chilean has similar attributes to Millman, but he also has two potentially decisive advantages. The first is his greater power, both when serving and off the ground, and the second is the fact that he did grow up on the clay. Garin demonstrated just how valuable that experience can be by demolishing Felix Auger-Aliassime in the first round. Expect him to teach Millman a similar lesson.
Prediction: Garin in 2
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Diego Schwartzman vs Casper Ruud
Head-to-head: Schwartzman 4-0 Ruud
It is surely fair to say that this has not been a rivalry that Casper Ruud has enjoyed. He has played Diego Schwartzman four times and the Argentine has beaten him four times, albeit once via retirement. That includes two meetings on clay, most recently in 2018 at the ATP German Open in Hamburg, where Schwartzman scored a 6-4 2-6 6-2 victory. But the Norwegian may well like his chances of enjoying a measure of revenge after starting his week with a 6-2 6-1 win over Holger Rune.
Schwartzman will almost certainly offer more resistance than the inexperienced Dane, however, even if this is his first match on the European clay this season. And, in truth, it is not particularly difficult to see why this is a matchup Schwartzman has dominated. Ruud does many things well, with the 22-year-old’s groundstrokes consistent and reasonably powerful, but he does not take the racquet out of opponent’s hands. Unfortunately for Ruud, Schwartzman is a very hard man to beat from the back of the court on clay.
Prediction: Schwartzman in 3
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Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner
Head-to-head: first meeting
This is a stern opening test for Novak Djokovic. The Serbian, who has twice won the title at the ATP Monte Carlo Masters, has been out of action since winning his 18th Grand Slam at the Australian Open, but he may well need to be at his very best up against Jannik Sinner. The teenager is in fine form, having arrived in Monte Carlo fresh from reaching his first Masters final in Miami, and he is more than at home on the clay, having made the quarterfinals at Roland Garros last season.
In the first round, he proved far too strong for former-finalist Albert Ramos Vinolas, with Sinner dismissing the Spaniard for the loss of only seven games in a 6-3 6-4 win, which is impressive even if Ramos Vinolas is not the force he once was. That said, playing Djokovic will be a very different proposition, one Sinner may not quite be ready for. He boasts formidable power and possesses good touch, but he may well struggle to overpower or outfox the world #1 regularly enough to reach the third round.
Prediction: Djokovic in 3
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Karen Khachanov vs Pablo Carreno Busta
Head-to-head: Khachanov 2-2 Carreno Busta
On a day featuring so many headline-grabbing matchups, this contest may go slightly under the radar. But it has the makings of a very entertaining clash nonetheless. Karen Khachanov has underperformed for the most part this season, with his best effort so far a quarterfinal showing in Rotterdam. But he made an assured start to his campaign at the ATP Monte Carlo Masters, beating Laslo Djere, the runner-up last week in Cagliari, 6-4 6-1 in the first round.
Pablo Carreno Busta, who won the title in Marbella last week, continued his good start to the clay-court season with a 7-5 7-6 win over Stefano Travaglia in the first round. He may well also draw confidence from having beaten Khachanov in their only previous clay-court meeting which came in Monte Carlo in 2017. The Russian has improved since and has won their two most recent meetings, but back on the clay, expect Carreno Busta to prove just about too strong.
Prediction: Carreno Busta in 3
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