Day 9 of the Australian Open will see two men’s quarterfinal matches. One features two of the best surprise stories at a Major in a while. The other will see a potentially ailing all-time great against a youngster looking for his first Major title. It should be a great day of tennis in Melbourne, and we’re predicting both matches. We also have predictions for Tuesday’s two women’s quarterfinals. Predicting these matches are Jim Smith, Fraser Learmonth, David Gertler, Steen Kirby, and Harsh Bhoot.
Australian Open Day 9 Men’s Predictions
Aslan Karatsev vs Grigor Dimitrov
Jim:
This is a huge opportunity for both men–but particularly for Dimitrov, and he will need to be at his very best to take it. Karatsev has been middling the ball all tournament and boasts formidable power; there are certainly few players who could have so completely taken the racket out of Schwartzman’s hands. But Dimitrov’s variety will allow him to present Karatsev with looks he isn’t used to seeing. That should just about give him the edge.
Prediction: Dimitrov in 5
Fraser:
Karatsev has already had a career-defining week in Melbourne. He has toppled two top 20 players in his last two matches after coming from two sets down to beat Felix Auger-Aliassime in the fouth round. The Russian has been incredibly aggressive and played fearless tennis so far and it’s payoing off. If he can maintain that courage and keep his levels at what they have been this week he has a real chance here. His opponent, Grigor Dimitrov, was incredibly impressive in his fourth round dismissal of Dominic Thiem for the loss of just eight games.
Dimitrov has looked very good so far in this tournament and did well to maintain focus and put away a clearly weary Thiem. However, big wins like that always set the stage for a dropoff in future matches. Karatsev has nothing to lose and should play freely as a result whereas DImitrov is a clear favourite and has a real chance at a Grand Slam semi-final here. I think that pressure may just get to DImitrov. It will be close, but I think Karatsev may well pull of one more upset here.
Prediction: Karatsev in 4
David:
Grigor Dimitrov is quietly playing excellent tennis, not dropping a set this tournament against excellent opposition. Aslan Karatsev is currently showcasing his high-level tennis on the world stage that he had been showing on the Challenger Tour since the 2020 resumption of the season. Karatsev has played excellent tennis to reach this point, but I think Dimitrov’s defensive abilities and variety will be crucial in this one.
Prediction: Dimitrov in 4
Harsh:
Aslan Karatsev has to be the story of this tournament. It’s rare to see a qualifier come so far and even more rare to see a qualifier looking so assured about his game. The Russian is making people stand up to take note of his first strike tennis and it’s a joy to watch. Grigor Dimitrov didn’t have to work too hard to beat No. 3 seed Dominic Thiem as the Austrian sprayed a lot of errors. The Bulgarian has looked in decent form so far, but Karatsev could give him his toughest test yet. Expect this to go the distance as both players look in great touch and serving exceptionally well. Nerves haven’t bothered Karatsev so far, and it doesn’t look like they’re going to.
Prediction: Karatsev in 5
Steen:
Two stories of the tournament: Dimitrov, who turns 30 next month, has one previous Australian Open semifinal (2017). Now a tour veteran, he’s riding the high of an upset win over Dominic Thiem and clearly eager to match his best ever tournament showing. Karatsev has come out of obscurity–the qualifier has been blazing hot since the return of tennis and the level of power hitting he has shown from both wings puts fear into even the strongest opposition. Dimitrov is the favorite, but I’ll continue to ride the Karatsev train. This is his best ever showing as a professional player, and I feel it’s not over quite yet.
Prediction: Karatsev in 4
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Novak Djokovic vs Alexander Zverev
Jim:
This match should provide a pretty clear indication of where Djokovic is at physically. The Serbian did not look at his sharpest against Milos Raonic in the fourth round, but better than he had during his grueling five-set encounter with Taylor Fritz. If he can continue that upward trend, he should prove too strong for Alexander Zverev in a matchup he has enjoyed the better of.
Prediction: Djokovic in 4
Fraser:
Novak Djokovic seemed moments from withdrawing from the tournament in his third round match against Taylor Fritz. However, he shook off the abdomen issue and put in a vintage performance against MIlos Raonic in the fourth round to advance to the quaterfinal. Although he looked uncomfortable at times, the Serbian is clearly able to play through the pain and was hitting signature full stretch winners for fun against the big-serving Canadian. However, he faces a tougher test in the quaterfinal against Alexander Zverev.
The German has an equally impressive serve but is a better mover and better of the ground than raonic. He is also one of the best defenders in the men’s game. He looked shaky at times against Dusan Lajovic, but won in straight sets in the end behind solid serving and great court coverage. If Djokovic wants to win this he will have to be aggressive in this match. His fourth round performance says he has enough to get it done. It should be close, but even a slightly off Djokovic has to be the favorite on Rod Laver Arena.
Prediction: Djokovic in 4
David:
Novak Djokovic certainly had a major injury scare during his match with Taylor Fritz, but seemed fine against Milos Raonic in the Round of 16. However, whether the injury will flare up against a good baseline in Zverev is a question. Alexander Zverev is playing great tennis, but hasn’t really been up against a player that can test him yet. I expect this one to play out a lot like their recent ATP Cup match, with Zverev starting strong and fading as the Djokovic baseline game wears him down.
Prediction: Djokovic in 5
Harsh:
Injured or not, that was a sublime performance from Novak Djokovic. The Serb was at his defensive best and he’s second to none when it comes to that. Those are ominous signs for Alexander Zverev especially considering the fact that the German has already lost to the World No. 1 at the ATP Cup. Zverev has managed to beat Djokovic a couple of times but over best of five sets at Rod Laver Arena is something that’s beyond almost everybody. Expect Zverev to take a set but Djokovic looks clutch and he can easily counterpunch Zverev’s groundstrokes.
Prediction: Djokovic in 4
Steen:
Djokovic is better than Zverev, head-to-head and otherwise, but his injury creates a level of uncertainty that gives the German an excellent chance here. Zverev has improved his game as the tournament has gone on, and will know to press Djokovic here. I don’t want to pick against the game’s #1 player, but the injury is a real limitation.
Prediction: Zverev in 4
Main Photo from Getty.
