With the Australian Open now looming large on the horizon, the 16 players left in the field at the WTA Gippsland Trophy will surely be determined to ensure that their preparations for the first Major of the year are successful. As ever, we here at LWOT will be offering our predictions for every match on the slate at Melbourne Park, including Katie Boulter vs Naomi Osaka. But who will book their place in the quarterfinals?
WTA Gippsland Trophy Day Four Predictions
Elise Mertens vs Caroline Garcia
Head-to-head: Garcia 3-0 Mertens
Elise Mertens made an assured start to her WTA Gippsland Trophy campaign with a comprehensive 6-2 6-2 win over the out-matched Mayo Hibi. The Belgian will also surely be glad to be back in Melbourne, where she has generally played well and reached the semifinals in 2018, her best effort at a Grand Slam to date. However, she may be rather less enthused to see Caroline Garcia waiting for her on the other side of the net.
The Frenchwoman, who has looked sharp in beating Arina Rodionova and Timea Babos, both in straight-sets, so far at Melbourne Park has won all three of this pair’s most recent meetings, most recently in the third round at the French Open last season. That being said, there is reason for Mertens to be hopeful. She ran Garcia very close in Paris, losing 5-7 in the third, and in Melbourne she is in conditions more favourable to her game. Expect her to snap her losing streak against Garcia.
Prediction: Mertens in 3
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Jelena Ostapenko vs Elina Svitolina
Head-to-head: Ostapenko 2-1 Svitolina
Elina Svitolina started her season with a battling run to the quarterfinals in Abu Dhabi, where, for the most part, she struggled to find her best tennis despite beating Jessica Pegula, Vera Zvonareva and Ekaterina Alexandrova. But she looked more assured in dismissing the challenge of Andrea Petkovic in her WTA Gippsland Trophy opener, dropping just five games in a 6-1 6-4 win. However, she may have her work cut out for her against Jelena Ostapenko.
The Latvian is anything but consistent, but she can be a hard player to stop when she is at her best with her power off the ground allowing her to take the racquet of her opponent’s hand. She is also generally a player who thrives on the big stage and she will surely welcome the chance to have a crack at the world #5. Equally, whilst Ostapenko played well in patches to beat Sara Errani and Danka Kovinic, she was hardly at her brilliant best. Svitolina should prove just about too good on a surface that suits her game better than the Latvian’s.
Prediction: Svitolina in 3
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Simona Halep vs Laura Siegemund
Head-to-head: Siegemund 2-1 Halep
There is much to like about Laura Siegemund’s game. The German covers the court impressively and typically gives very little away from the baseline, whilst she also has good hands in the forecourt. That combination of skills has served her well so far at Melbourne Park, with Siegemund having scored straight-sets victories over Monica Niculescu and Destanee Aiava. But Simona Halep is in a different class to both Niculescu and Aiava, which could spell trouble for Siegemund.
The German does, surprisingly enough, lead their head-to-head, having recorded back-to-back wins in Stuttgart in 2016 and 2017 before Halep got a measure of revenge in the second round at the Italian Open later that season. But Halep has become a more consistent player in the intervening years and she has also significantly improved on hard courts. The same cannot be said of Siegemund, who has never enjoyed much success on this surface. That all points to a Halep win.
Prediction: Halep in 2
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Jasmine Paolini vs Karolina Muchova
Head-to-head: Muchova 2-0 Paolini
Catherine McNally enjoyed a very fine juniors career, but she has had a rather rude awakening to life in the senior ranks and her troubles were added to by Karolina Muchova, who thrashed the American 6-1 6-1 to claim her second win of the season. Jasmine Paolini, meanwhile, has impressed so far at the WTA Gippsland Trophy, picking up wins over Rebecca Marino and 10th seed Wang Qiang, who she beat from a set down.
However, she has lost both of her previous meetings with Muchova and in fairly comprehensive fashion. That does not inspire great confidence in her chances against the Czech in Melbourne, particularly because the fast-medium courts at Melbourne Park are the sort to reward Muchova’s first-strike brand of tennis. Paolini, who has enjoyed most of her success on the European clay, has unquestionably had a good week, but it is hard to see her stay extending into the quarterfinals.
Prediction: Muchova in 2
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