Ahead of the 2021 season (my predictions for which player will win all four Grand Slams, the WTA Finals and Olympic medals here), I will be offering my predictions for the 2021 WTA year-end top 10, with a full summary of how I expect the rankings to look at the end of the year.
10. Elise Mertens (Belgium)
| 2020 Rank | #20 | Career High Rank | #12 |
| 2020 Win Rate | 72% | Career Win Rate | 65% |
Elise Mertens was one of the stars of the WTA post-suspension with a 23-8 record once the tour resumed. Mertens is both an underrated and reliable player, which is very rare women’s tennis. Therefore I expect her ranking to halve in 2021.
9. Serena Williams (USA)
| 2020 Rank | #11 | Career High Rank | #1 |
| 2020 Win Rate | 77% | Career Win Rate | 85% |
Serena Williams is most certainly past prime and is essentially a part-timer now so does not play many tournaments. However, such is the state of the WTA nowadays, she has remained in or around the Top 10 for the last couple of years. I expect to continue in 2021.
8. Petra Kvitova (Czech Republic)
| 2020 Rank | #8 | Career High Rank | #2 |
| 2020 Win Rate | 77% | Career Win Rate | 70% |
Ever since her return to the tour in 2017 from the horrific attack she suffered, Petra Kvitova has arguably become a more reliable and consistent player. However, she has lost that A+ game capable of beating the top players in good form. Therefore, I expect no ranking change in 2021.
7. Garbine Muguruza (Spain)
| 2020 Rank | #15 | Career High Rank | #1 |
| 2020 Win Rate | 77% | Career Win Rate | 66% |
2020 saw a return to form for Garbine Muguruza, which included a run to the Australian Open final. Now with Conchita Martinez as her coach, I expect further consistency for the 2-time Grand Slam champion and a return to the Top 10 where she belongs.
6. Iga Swiatek (Poland)
| 2020 Rank | #17 | Career High Rank | #17 |
| 2020 Win Rate | 74% | Career Win Rate | 78% |
The young Pole shocked the tennis world when she won the French Open without dropping a set in 2020 as an unseeded player. Whilst there will be a lot more pressure on Iga Swiatek to deliver in 2021, if she plays to half the level she showed us in Paris, she’ll end up a fixture in the Top 10.
5. Sofia Kenin (USA)
| 2020 Rank | #4 | Career High Rank | #4 |
| 2020 Win Rate | 73% | Career Win Rate | 64% |
Sofia Kenin is vulturing in this era of women’s tennis and to be frankly honest, good for her. Despite a mediocre game, her amazing mental strength and self-belief has made her a reliable player at the biggest stages. That will ensure she will remain in the Top 5 for a second straight year.
4. Ashleigh Barty (Australia)
| 2020 Rank | #1 | Career High Rank | #1 |
| 2020 Win Rate | 79% | Career Win Rate | 73% |
Ashleigh Barty is the reliable World No.1 that women’s tennis needs. She is great for the game as she does not fit the WTA mold, symbolizing some progression and evolution in the tour. However, as she hasn’t played since February 2020, she may start 2021 rusty and end up dropping a few places.
3. Victoria Azarenka (Belarus)
| 2020 Rank | #13 | Career High Rank | #1 |
| 2020 Win Rate | 75% | Career Win Rate | 72% |
One of the feel-good stories in what was a difficult 2020 for us all was seeing Victoria Azarenka back in the latter stages of a Grand Slam with a run to the US Open final. A hard-court specialist, Azarenka will have many opportunities to pick up points next year given the unpredictability of her rivals. By the end of 2021, Azarenka should be one of the main faces in the WTA again.
2. Naomi Osaka (Japan)
| 2020 Rank | #3 | Career High Rank | #1 |
| 2020 Win Rate | 84% | Career Win Rate | 64% |
Yes, Naomi Osaka is a one-surface player and arguably the weakest three-time Grand Slam champion in history. However, when most the tournaments are on her preferred surface and most the tour are easily beatable, there should be no concern for the Japanese player’s ranking hopes. I predict her to get her highest ever year-end ranking.
1. Simona Halep (Romania)
| 2020 Rank | #2 | Career High Rank | #1 |
| 2020 Win Rate | 88% | Career Win Rate | 70% |
Simona Halep is the most reliable player in women’s tennis now, as demonstrated by having the highest win percentage in 2020. What sets Halep apart from most of her peers is that you would back her to make the semifinals or better at any tournament. Therefore, there are plenty of ranking point opportunities for the Romanian which is why I predict her as my year-end No.1 in 2021.
Expect the 2021 year-end WTA Top 10 to look like the following:
Rank. Player Name (Country) (Change)
- Simona Halep (ROU) (+1)
- Naomi Osaka (JPN) (+1)
- Victoria Azarenka (BLR) (+10)
- Ashleigh Barty (AUS) (-3)
- Sofia Kenin (USA) (-1)
- Iga Swiatek (POL) (+11)
- Garbine Muguruza (ESP) (+8)
- Petra Kvitova (CZE) (=)
- Serena Williams (USA) (+2)
- Elise Mertens (BEL) (+10)
What do you think the top of women’s tennis will look like at the end of 2021? Let me know in the comments!
Main photo:
Embed from Getty Images
