There should be no shortage of entertaining action on day four at the ATP Hamburg Open, with three seeded players set to battle for a place in the quarterfinals. As ever, we here at LWOT will be offering our predictions for all four matches on the slate in Germany. But who will advance?
ATP Hamburg Open Day Four Predictions
Karen Khachanov vs Dusan Lajovic
Head-to-head: Lajovic 3-0 Khachanov
This is a big match for both Karen Khachanov and Dusan Lajovic, with neither man having arrived at the ATP Hamburg Open in particularly sparkling form. Khachanov did reach the third round at both the Cincinnati Masters and the US Open, but that is at best a middling return for a player of his talents, and he fell to Casper Ruud at the first hurdle in Rome. However, he rebounded to claim a hard-fought 7-6 4-6 7-5 win over Jan-Lennard Struff in the first round in Germany.
Lajovic remains frustratingly inconsistent, but after a very poor showing in the USA, where he failed to win a match, he looks to be beginning to find some form on the clay. He did lose in the first round in Kitzbuhel, but reached the third round at the Italian Open and backed that up by dismantling Adrian Mannarino in his opener in Hamburg, losing just five games in a comprehensive 6-4 6-1 win. Lajovic has also dominated this pair’s head-to-head, winning all three of their previous meetings.
In fact, Khachanov is yet to take a set off the Serbian. If he is to emerge victorious this time, he will need to find a way to target the Lajovic backhand with his own topspin-heavy forehand. That may be a risky strategy, with Lajovic more than capable of striking winners with his elegant one-hander, but it is a shot that can break down under pressure. But on clay, Lajovic excels at moving his opponents around and keeping them off balance. That should be enough to see him past Khachanov.
Prediction: Lajovic in 3
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Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Pablo Cuevas
Head-to-head: Tsitsipas 2-0 Cuevas
Pablo Cuevas’ star may be on the wane, but the Uruguayan rolled back the years to hammer Taylor Fritz 6-4 6-2 in the first round at the ATP Hamburg Open, after beating Kevin Krawietz and Gilles Simon in the qualifying. However, he faces what looks certain to be a stern second-round test in the shape of Stefanos Tsitsipas. The Greek, it must be said, is not in particularly impressive form, having failed to make any sort of impact in ‘Cincinnati’, New York or Rome.
But he did get back to winning ways in the first round in Hamburg, dismissing British #1 Dan Evans 6-3 6-1, which will surely have given his confidence a much-needed lift. He has also beaten Cuevas in straight sets in both of their previous encounters, including in the final at the Estoril Open last season. Cuevas does have the skill and experience to make a match of this, but if Tsitsipas plays anything like his best tennis, he should be able to overpower the Uruguayan.
Prediction: Tsitsipas in 3
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Ugo Humbert vs Jiri Vesely
Head-to-head: Vesely 1-0 Humbert
Ugo Humbert is rarely talked about as a star of the future, but the Frenchman is carving out a very impressive career for himself. Already firmly ensconced in the top 50 at world #41, Humbert impressed in reaching the fourth round at Wimbledon last year and has also played some fine tennis since the season resumed. He has certainly handled the transition to clay well, reaching the third round at the Italian Open before stunning top seed Daniil Medvedev in the first round in Hamburg.
Of course, the Russian was not at his best in that match with his poor start to this abbreviated European clay-court swing continuing. But Humbert seized his opportunity impressively, picking up his first top-ten win in the process. But in Jiri Vesely, he faces a man looking more than at home in Hamburg. The Czech stormed through the qualifying without dropping a set and proved far too strong for lucky loser Gilles Simon in the first round, winning 7-5 6-2.
Inconsistency does remain a real problem for Vesely, but when he is on song he is a hard man to stop thanks to his thunderous power, both on serve and off the ground. Humbert has power of his own, however, with his forehand a more than useful weapon. He would not be well-advised to try and go toe-to-toe with Vesely, but one suspects Humbert will be aware of this. If he can return well and keep Vesely moving, expect Humbert to book his place in the quarterfinals.
Prediction: Humbert in 3
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Casper Ruud vs Fabio Fognini
Head-to-head: Ruud 1-0 Fognini
This should be some match. Ruud has been quietly establishing himself as one of the better clay-courters in the men’s game. He put together an impressive Golden Swing, which saw him win the Argentina Open before reaching the final in Santiago, and then made a superb start to his European clay-court season, reaching the semifinals at the Italian Open. That run saw him beat Khachanov, Lorenzo Sonego, Marin Cilic and Matteo Berrettini.
He then fell short in the last four against eventual champion Novak Djokovic, losing 5-7 3-6 despite serving for the first set. But he looked to have rebounded in his Hamburg opener, taking the first set against Benoit Paire before the Frenchman retired trailing 4-6 0-2. But one suspects that he may need to be at his very best up against Fabio Fognini in the second round at the ATP Hamburg Open, although the Italian has not found his best tennis yet since the restart.
But Fognini will surely be buoyed by having returned to winning ways in Hamburg, where he beat the veteran Philipp Kohlschreiber 4-6 6-1 7-5, after a disappointing first-round loss in Rome. However, whilst Fognini did play some fine tennis at points against the German, particularly in the second set, there was relatively little in his performance to suggest that he will beat Ruud. Of course, Fognini can suddenly catch fire at tournaments, but the consistent Ruud looks the likelier winner by a distance.
Prediction: Ruud in 3
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