The US Open Semifinals will be set on Wednesday in New York as the Russian pair of Andrey Rublev and Daniil Medvedev and #2 seed Dominic Thiem vs Alex De Minaur are the matchups. Our panel of Jim Smith, Harsh Bhoot, and Damian Kust offer their predictions.
Andrey Rublev vs Daniil Medvedev
Jim: Medvedev did not quite convince in his first matches after the restart, but he looks in good touch now and his demolition of Frances Tiafoe in the fourth round has surely sent a message to the rest of the field. Rublev too has been playing very well and should have the firepower to test Medvedev. But he has not yet taken a set of Medvedev in three meetings. He should be able to change that in New York, but this is not a good match up for him and that won’t be changed so easily. Medvedev in 4
Damian: Even the pandemic couldn’t stop Andrey Rublev’s fantastic 2020 form. The Russian was playing the best tennis of his life before the break and he’s still doing so after the break. Beating Berrettini is just another sign of that, especially compared to his straightforward loss to the Italian last year. With an improved serve and the ever-dangerous forehand working so well, Rublev is a threat to anyone. Daniil Medvedev had his number in the past though, and for good reason. Medvedev’s retrieval skills and his court coverage matchup very well against Rublev’s aggressive style. While it should be closer than their 2019 matches, Medvedev is like a wall behind the baseline. There’ll be lots of running to do for the world no. 5, but it will be very hard for Rublev to consistently make dents in that wall. Medvedev in 4
Harsh: This should be an interesting match. It’s most likely going to be Andrey Rublev’s offense against Daniil Medvedev’s defense. Rublev certainly impressed by taking out Matteo Berrettini and he would need to be at his very best once again to have a shot at beating Medvedev. The 2019 US Open finalist is looking like the man to beat. Medvedev blasted Frances Tiafoe away and while one would expect it won’t be as easy against Rublev, a Medvedev win is still the likely result. Expect Medvedev to defend well as he’s done all tournament and eventually break down Rublev’s game. Medvedev in 3
Alex de Minaur vs Dominic Thiem
Jim: As well as de Minaur has played in reaching the quarterfinals, real concerns about his ability to take on and beat the very best remain. And Dominic Thiem is very much in that category now. The Austrian has recovered impressively from his second-round humiliation at the Cincinnati Masters and is looking increasingly formidable. Like Medvedev, he has not yet dropped a set. De Minaur will not make things easy for the second seed, but expect Thiem’s power to overwhelm the Australian. Thiem in 4
Damian: Despite not really playing his best tennis, Alex De Minaur is into his first Grand Slam quarterfinal. While the opportunity might be overwhelming, he doesn’t strike me as the kind of player to let the nerves get the better off him. What will be overwhelming though is Dominic Thiem’s power. The Austrian is not a good matchup for De Minaur and their match at the US Open three years ago was a showcase of that. While it’s undoubtedly the Australian who made bigger progress since, Thiem’s hardcourt game has also evolved. The second seed seems to be getting his level up with each match this fortnight and should continue to do so. Thiem in 3
Harsh: Both players come into this match on the back of very impressive wins. Alex De Minaur was clinical in dispatching Vasek Pospisil and Dominic Thiem looked supremely confident against Felix Auger-Aliassime. The Aussie no doubt will have to play lights out to be relevant from the baseline because the Austrian is feeling good and is hitting his groundstrokes with some power. The pressure to bring new tactical plays rests on the Aussie but the Austrian seems well equipped to handle anything at the moment. Expect a grinding match from both and De Minaur could bag a set but that’s all he would get. Thiem in 4
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