A thrilling first week at the US Open will come to a close on Saturday with the 16 men left standing in the bottom half of the draw set to battle it out for a place in the fourth round. As ever, we here at LWOT will be offering our predictions for every match across the day, including Daniil Medvedev vs J.J. Wolf. Giving their picks for this slate of matches are Jim Smith, Damian Kust and Andrew Watson.
US Open Men’s Day Six Predictions
Dominic Thiem vs Marin Cilic
Jim: Dominic Thiem got off to a rocky start at this summer, losing in the first round at the Cincinnati Masters. But he has rebounded at the US Open with victories over Jaume Munar and Sumit Nagal. Cilic looks likely to provide a tougher test, but the Croatian is not the player he once was. Expect Thiem, who has won both of their previous matches, to come out on top.
Prediction: Thiem in 4
Damian: The Austrian leads the head-to-head 2-0, with the more important meeting coming last year at the Rogers Cup. There were some doubts regarding Thiem’s form coming into the US Open, but he has sharpened up. Cilic should have been out of the tournament in the opening round down two sets to Denis Kudla, but he was more comfortable against Norbert Gombos. The Croat will need a great serving day to keep it somewhat even, but it’s hard to look past a Thiem win.
Prediction: Thiem in 4
Andrew: To be fair to him Cilic is resurrecting some kind of US Open ghost of Grand Slams past to make some progress in the draw having arrived in woeful form. The big Croatian can’t be counted out here, but Thiem is a massive step up for him. The Austrian second seed is yet to drop a set this week and what’s more he has beaten Cilic in their previous two meetings. Everything points to a Thiem win.
Prediction: Thiem in 3
Embed from Getty Images
Alex de Minaur vs Karen Khachanov
Jim: Neither man has looked entirely convincing so far at the US Open, with Alex de Minaur taken to four sets by Richard Gasquet in the round of 64 and Karen Khachanov taken the distance by Jannik Sinner in the first round. But the conditions should suit the aggressively minded Khachanov, although he will need to serve well against de Minaur, who is one of the better returners in the men’s game.
Prediction: Khachanov in 4
Damian: The Australian did not serve particularly well against Gasquet, at one point making seven consecutive faults. He also blew three match points in the third set, one on a double fault, prolonging his struggles by about an hour as a result. Khachanov barely survived his opener against Sinner, but looked much better against his countryman Andrey Kuznetsov in the second round. This should be a good matchup for de Minaur but if the Australian can’t close out sets and struggles on his second serve, Khachanov has the game to take advantage.
Prediction: Khachanov in 5
Andrew: De Minaur did well to retain his focus and finish off the match against Gasquet in four sets after losing three match points in a third-set tiebreak. Khachanov had a more relaxing time against Kuznetsov, but faces a real step-up in quality here. This is the pair’s first meeting, but de Minaur should have the edge thanks to his solid defensive game, which will force Khachanov hit lines to progress.
Prediction: de Minaur in 4
Embed from Getty Images
Frances Tiafoe vs Marton Fucsovics
Jim: This is a big opportunity for both men to reach the second week at a Major and it also looks likely to be a very close contest, particularly as both men went the distance in the second round. But although Tiafoe arguably has the greater pedigree, having previously reached the last eight in Melbourne, the quick conditions seem likely to favour Fucsovics, who excels at taking the ball early.
Prediction: Fucsovics in 4
Damian: Both men are coming off exhausting five-setters. Tiafoe defeated John Millman, overcoming not only his opponent but also a shoulder injury. Fucsovics got the better off Grigor Dimitrov for the second time in as many weeks, prevailing after the Bulgarian wasted several chances to close out the match. The Hungarian has won both of this pair’s previous meetings and should be able to win again, especially if Tiafoe is carrying an injury. Still, expect it to be another gruelling physical battle.
Prediction: Fucsovics in 5
Andrew: Both men have done well to progress to the third round. Fucsovics outlasted Dimitrov in his last match and he has also beaten Tiafoe in their two previous meetings. The young American can be very proud of his win in the second round over Millman, it was a tough battle and he showed a lot of heart to come through. But it may be a step too far for him to recover from that battle and then beat another dangerous player in Fucsovics.
Prediction: Fucsovics in 4
Embed from Getty Images
Andrey Rublev vs Salvatore Caruso
Jim: It is something of a surprise to see Salvatore Caruso in the third round at the US Open. But to his credit, he has taken advantage of a relatively kind draw. Unfortunately, the draw has done him no favours in leaving him in the path of Andrey Rublev, who is enjoying an excellent season and reached the quarterfinals in New York back in 2017.
Prediction: Rublev in 3
Damian: Rublev, even after the tour was suspended for five months, is still in the same excellent form he showed earlier in the year. The Russian’s forehand is a force that absolutely everyone needs to respect. Caruso took advantage of a great draw to get here and although he will make Rublev earn it with his solid tennis from the baseline, the Russian’s point construction and shot selection are better than ever right now.
Prediction: Rublev in 3
Andrew: As good a player as Caruso is, and he is very solid, Rublev will be delighted to be playing the Italian in the third round of a Grand Slam. Caruso is playing near to the peak of his powers here in Flushing Meadows whilst Rublev appears to be warming to his task nicely. Expect the Russian to progress.
Prediction: Rublev in 3
Main photo:
Embed from Getty Images
