The weirdest US Open in recent memory is set to begin on Monday. No Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal, no crowds, no qualifying draw, no reciprocal wild cards…lots of things will feel odd, that’s for sure.
Asterisk or not, the men’s singles draw is full of fun first round matchups. These are the matches to keep an eye on in the first couple of days as long as no one withdraws. In addition, we can’t rule out a Professional Tennis Player Association massive boycott or even an alien invasion this weekend. Remember, it’s 2020. Crazy stuff is happening on a regular basis.
Anyway, welcome to the newest edition of the US Open Watchability Power Rankings.
US Open Watchability Power Rankings
Debuts Thou Shalt Not Miss
Maxime Cressy vs Jozef Kovalik
Who said young players lack variety and are carbon copies of one another? That statement does not apply to Cressy. The French-American, a former UCLA star, plays the most unorthodox brand of tennis on tour. Cressy will try to make the most of his wild card deploying a heavy dose of serve and volley, chip and charge and even slice forehands. Along with Alexander Bublik, he’s a legitimate candidate to replace Dustin Brown as the unofficial president of the Y.O.L.O. Tennis Fraternity. Kovalik is in for an adventure.
Watchability Index: 10/10
Emil Ruusuvuori vs Aljaz Bedene
Whenever one of the top young guns is facing a pesky veteran, entertainment is assured. The Finn’s live ranking (No. 92) is deceptive, as the Universal Tennis Rating algorithm believes he’s the 35th best player at the moment. The 21-year-old plays a flashy, attacking style; and nearly upset No. 8 Matteo Barrettini last week. Meanwhile, Bedene lacks a big game or name, but he usually manages to hang in matches against strong opposition. This year, he has upended Stefanos Tsitsipas, Cristian Garín or Taylor Fritz, among others.
Watchability Index: 10/10
Brandon Nakashima vs Paolo Lorenzi
If this match doesn’t intrigue you, your tennis fandom is automatically under scrutiny. One of the fastest improving teens against an ageless ironman. Nakashima, who spent half a season at the University of Virginia, lost in the junior semifinal last year against eventual champion Jonas Forejtek. Given his progress throughout this season, he should be favored against Lorenzi. However, count the 38-year-old out at your own risk. The Italian keeps his ranking afloat because he plays such a heavy schedule of 30-35 tournaments and strings together a few wins every now and then. Don’t forget that he reached the round of 32 in Flushing Meadows last year.
Watchability Index: 10/10
Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Daniel Evans
The 2018 junior champion was the first player to officially test positive for COVID-19, unless he made it up like our friend Bernie, which is surely not the case. A surprising champion of the ATP Santiago half a year ago, Seyboth Wild boasts a massive forehand and glaring potential. Nevertheless, it’s hard to feel optimistic about his chances to bother Evans. The Brit has been playing the best tennis of his career of late. Thus, according to Tennis Abstract ELO-based forecast, Evans has a 90.8% chance of advancing. I don’t think the gap is that large, but it will be a fun match to watch.
Watchability Index: 9/10
All-American Special
Steve Johnson vs John Isner
Since the NCAA canceled its spring season due to the pandemic, the USTA had an excuse not to give a wild card to a current Division I star. No problem. The draw found a way to deliver. Isner (University of Georgia) and Johnson (University of Southern California) stand out as two of best college players in this century. They haven’t played on the tour in over two years, but Johnson owns a current winning streak of four matches versus Isner.
Watchability Index: 6/10
KWhat’s your Name?
Thai-Son Kwiatkowski vs Soon Woo Kwon
I pledge to get a buzz cut if this isn’t the first main draw match in US Open history featuring two men whose last names both begin with Kw-. Hit me up on Twitter if I’m mistaken. It would be classic 2020. As for the actual match, Kwon has a better pro résumé than Kwiatkowski, but the Korean was sloppy in last week’s Masters. Hence, this could be a major opportunity for the former University of Virginia standout.
Watchability Index: 6/10
Thriller Repeat?
Reilly Opelka vs David Goffin
In January 2017, Opelka made his first appearance in a Grand Slam main draw. His opponent was No. 11 seed Goffin. The tallest player on tour, who was 19 at the time, produced a superb performance, but ended up falling just short, as the Belgian prevailed 6-4 in the fifth set. The two have battled once since, with Opelka narrowly coming through 6-7 7-6 7-5 in Basel despite winning fewer points than Goffin. As long as his ailing knee holds up, I expect this to be another nail-bitter. It could go either way, but Goffin should really avoid attempting a SABB (Sneaky Attack By Berrettini) on a 130 miles per hour dinger.
Watchability Index: 8/10
Grigor Dimitrov vs Tommy Paul
He’s rapidly approaching 30 and still baffles his fans at every turn. Predicting Dimitrov’s performance is a daunting task even for the savviest clairvoyants. Last season, after a calamitous summer, he made his way to the US Open semis, ousting Federer for the first time in the process. Then he went 2-4 in his next four tournaments. Sweet trolling, Grigor. Later on, at the 2020 Australian Open, he lost a 4-hour 20-minute slugfest to Paul. If the 23-year-old American remains in his pre-pandemic form, Dimitrov is in trouble.
Watchability Index: 8/10
Seeds in (Real) Danger
Guido Pella vs J.J. Wolf
Pella’s ineligibility to play Cincy despite not testing positive for COVID-19 was allegedly the last straw that led to Novak Djokovic, Vasek Pospisil & Co.’s short-lived? coup against the ATP. But this match warrants extra attention for something else: Wolf is legit. His thunderous forehand has the upside to become one of the most devastating strokes on tour. The ex-Buckeye is vastly under-ranked but has won two Challengers in 2020. Both UTR and Tennis Abstract fancy Wolf’s chances to advance against a rusty Argentinian.
Watchability Index: 10/10
Karen Khachanov vs Jannik Sinner
Expecting Sinner to follow a linear ascent to the top of the sport would be foolish. The path to glory is bumpy. As disheartening as it sounds a loss to Salvatore Caruso on hard, it’s just a part of the process. In 2020, Sinner has shown glimpses of his A-game, mostly during the pandemic exhibitions though. He can’t (and shouldn’t be expected to) maintain it over week-long stretches. Outdoors, I trust the big-hitting Khachanov slightly more as of now. Yet, Sinner is more than capable of outhitting the Russian on a good day.
Watchability Index: 9/10
Nikoloz Basilashvili vs John Millman
As my colleague Damian Kust wrote in his own preview piece, Basilashvili is embroiled in a criminal trial back in Georgia for allegedly assaulting his wife. On top of that, he looked horrendous in his 6-4 6-1 defeat at the hands of Felix Auger-Aliassime last week. The Tbilisi native connected 8 winners and 36 unforced errors. Woeful from all perspectives. Not the best time to face a stout wall like Millman.
Watchability Index: 5/10
Humongous Rookie Underdogs, But…
Sebastian Korda vs Denis Shapovalov
They were born merely nine months apart, but by the time Korda hoisted his Australian Open junior trophy, Shapovalov had already broken into the Top 50. It’s been already three full years since the Canadian’s unbelievable summer breakthrough that featured wins over Rafael Nadal, Juan Martín Del Potro or Daniil Medvedev among others. His progression had seemingly stalled but under the reins of Mikhail Youzhny he started playing smarter tennis toward the end of 2019. While he got off to a hot start at the ATP Cup, his ensuing results have been disappointing. On paper, he should handily dismiss No. 225 Korda, but he better approach this match seriously if he wants to avoid a scare. The 20-year-old projects as one of the leaders of the American crew in the short future and defeated Gilles Simon in Cincinnati/New York.
Watchability Index: 9/10
Ulises Blanch vs Cristian Garín
While I’m not as bullish on Blanch as on other rising Americans such as Korda, Nakashima or Wolf, he shouldn’t be slept on. Once a top junior, his development remained relatively stagnant for three seasons. Notwithstanding, his 2020 results are promising. His 17-6 record speaks for itself. Taking into consideration that Garín is not known for his hard court exploits (1-6 this season), this match could not be as lopsided as it might appear at first glance.
Watchability Index: 7/10
Random Historical Connection
Attila Balazs vs Mikhail Kukushkin
A player named after the mighty Attila the Hun, making his maiden Grand Slam main draw appearance at the age of 32 deserves automatic inclusion in this list. The Hungarian spent a few months in the Top 200 back in 2010, but his regression prompted a temporary retirement. But just like his famous namesake from the 5th century, he mounted a major comeback after the original setback. This will be Balazs’ first meeting against Kukushkin, the flattest hitter on tour. Here’s hoping it doesn’t end in a bloodbath.
Watchability Index: 6/10
Keep Gettin’ Dem Checks
Andrey Kuznetsov vs Sam Querrey
Not even in his wildest dreams would Andrey Kuznetsov have imagined his protected ranking (No. 130) would give him a direct ticket to a Grand Slam main draw paycheck. The former world No. 39 hasn’t picked up an ATP or Challenger win since September 2017. His return to tennis already tastes like victory after a couple of injury-ravaged campaigns. Querrey doesn’t inspire much confidence following the long, pandemic-induced hiatus, but there’s a considerable gap between the Californian and the amateur players the Russian defeated in July in Spain.
Watchability Index: 6/10
Tricky Start For The Muzzard
Andy Murray vs Yoshihito Nishioka
Not long ago, Murray was a demigod and he would crush the majority of his foes in the early rounds. Alas, several hip surgeries later, the Scot great has understandably dropped his level. He is still good enough to beat Frances Tiafoe and Alexander Zverev back-to-back, but I believe the speedy Nishioka could be a matchup problem. If Murray manages to oust the Japanese lefty, I expect him to outlast Felix Auger-Aliassime in the second round too.
Watchability Index: 8/10
Wine Tasting Retreat
Ivo Karlovic vs Richard Gasquet
It’s common knowledge that wine gets better with age. Likewise, we learn to appreciate certain players as they get older. A prime example is Karlovic, who’s been disregarded as a one-dimensional serve-bot his whole career. His tennis isn’t aesthetically pleasing, but credit where it’s due, he’s still out there at 41 years of age hitting bombs and teaching slice lessons. He doesn’t have many more majors in him, we’d be wise to enjoy his tennis while we can. I can’t wait until this matchup versus Gasquet, a fellow wizard off the backhand wing. The Frenchman dominates their rivalry 5 to 1 and is a heavy favorite again, but Karlovic’s lone triumph came precisely in New York.
Watchability Index: 7/10
Which encounter are you looking for the most? Feel free to drop a comment right below or on Last Word On Tennis’ social media sites.
Main Photo from Getty.
