Australian Open day 5 features the world class Roger Federer against Queensland battler John Millman and a veteran matchup of Roberto Bautista Agut vs Marin Cilic. Jim Smith, Harsh Bhoot, and Andrew Watson and offer their predictions. They also have predictions for matches featuring Milos Raonic and Novak Djokovic.
Roger Federer vs John Millman
Jim: Millman will likely never forget his stunning US Open victory over Federer, but replicating it in Melbourne will be no mean feat, with Federer having been in dominant form so far in Melbourne. But Millman has been competitive in both of his other meetings with Federer, including in Brisbane five years ago when he took the Swiss the distance. Victory is still almost certainly beyond his reach, but expect him to put up some solid resistance. Federer in 4
Harsh: This isn’t as easy as it looks for Roger Federer. John Millman is on a roll in Melbourne and has taken out two in-form players in Hurkacz and Humbert. The Aussie looks set to provide a stern test but a repeat of the US Open 2018 result looks unlikely. The crowd will no doubt be torn between the two players but Millman will thrive on the support he receives. As well as Millman has played, Federer too has been impressive so far and if the Swiss can keep serving like he’s been in his first two matches, Federer should progress. Federer in 4
Andrew: The Swiss has been purring as he has strolled through his first couple of matches looking sensational. Millman has also played well, using the home crowd to give him a boost. Millman has form of beating Federer in Grand Slams (US Open 2018) so an upset cannot be ruled out. However, Federer will be keen to avenge that defeat and he looks in supreme form to do so. Federer in 3
Guido Pella vs Fabio Fognini
Jim: Fabio Fognini has made quite the start to his Australian Open. First, he rallied back from two-sets down against Reilly Opelka to win in a final-set tiebreak, before throwing away a two-set lead against Jordan Thompson, only to win in a final-set tiebreak. Pella, meanwhile, has been making steady progress through the draw. If he can maintain that, he should prove too strong for the inconsistent Italian, who may well start to feel the effects of his heavy workload. Pella in 4
Harsh: Fognini has won in match tiebreakers in both of his matches this tournament and will no doubt be fatigued. Pella has had it relatively easier in his first two matches and knows he’s in with a chance. The Argentine leads the head to head 2-1 as well but this is their first encounter on the hard courts and with both heavy baseliners and no big serves, this match looks like a five-setter. And if that happens, Pella is fresher out of the two to edge this one. Pella in 5
Andrew: One of these players has made tennis look fairly straightforward , whilst the other has made himself toil and sweat to get here. No prizes for guessing that it is the Italian that falls under the latter half of the description. To come through two 5-set marathons to then play Pella is tough. However, Fognini simply cannot be ruled out of this contest. This may well also go the distance and if it does the Argentine must be favoured on fitness grounds alone. Pella in 5
Marton Fucsovics vs Tommy Paul
Jim: Paul has long been dealt a rough hand by his home tennis federation, but the American has real talent and is putting that to work in his favour. However, he will need all of it against Fucsovics, who has made a great start to his Australian Open campaign. There looks to be little to choose between the two, but this feels like it has the makings of a breakout run for Paul. Expect him to find a way to continue it. Paul in 5
Harsh: Tommy Paul certainly punched above his weight when he went toe to toe with Grigor Dimitrov and won in a match tiebreak. He takes on Marton Fucsovics who is on a good run of his own. After a grueling match like Paul just had, Fucsovics has the upper hand if the match goes long. The Hungarian caused an upset beating Denis Shapovalov and felt pretty good about his game after. An extremely tough one to call but expecting this match to go the distance as well, Fucsovics should move forward. Fucsovics in 5
Andrew: The Hungarian has been ultra impressive in Melbourne so far. He dismissed both Shapovalov and Sinner, both tipped by many to win Grand Slam titles, with consummate ease. The American, however, has an incredible story too, defeating Grigor Dimitrov from the edge of defeat. Paul appeared to be beginning to struggle physically in the fifth set against the Bulgarian though and this may hinder his chances here. Fucsovics in 4
Roberto Bautista Agut vs Marin Cilic
Jim: A year ago when this pair met at the Australian Open, it was Marin Cilic who was the top-ten star and favourite. But the Croatian endured a miserable 2019 and although he has shown some signs of life in 2020, this will be a massive test. Bautista Agut is now firmly established as one of the world’s best and having beating Cilic in both their meetings at the Australian Open, it is hard to see a different result here, particularly after Marin Cilic endured a draining five-setter with Benoit Paire in the second round. Bautista Agut in 4
Harsh: As far as third-round encounters go, we’re lucky to have such a high-quality match this early on. Marin Cilic is seeking to regain his best form and needs it if he’s to beat Bautista Agut. The Spaniard is red hot in 2020 having gone unbeaten in the ATP Cup and is off to a decent start here as well. Cilic had to scrape past Paire in a match tiebreak and while the Croat can beat anyone on his day, the Spaniard on current form is better poised to reach the round of 16. Expect lots of long rallies and the Croat to win a set. Bautista Agut in 4
Andrew: Spectators at courtside could end up with sore necks after this one. Cilic comes off a match tiebreak victory over Benoit Paire so will have plenty of tennis in his legs already. Bautista Agut though was up quite late to finish against Mmoh in round two. The Spaniard’s metronomic accuracy and consistency is going to test Cilic and unless the Croatian can find the big weapons regularly he will falter under the assessment at some stage. Bautista Agut in 4
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