So far, there have been no major upsets in the top half of the men’s draw at the Australian Open. But with the battle for a place in the last 32 set to be intense on day four in Melbourne, will all the big names find their way into the third round? Rafael Nadal is set to face Federico Delbonis whilst Nick Kyrgios takes on Gilles Simon and Dominic Thiem clashes with home hope Alex Bolt. We here at LWOT are offering our predictions for all 16 men’s matches, with Jim Smith, Yesh Ginsburg and Damian Kust giving their picks for this slate. Who will progress?
Australian Open Day 4 Predictions
Daniil Medvedev vs Pedro Martinez
Jim: Pedro Martinez was surely delighted to claim his first win in the main draw at a Grand Slam by beating Germany’s Dominik Koepfer in straight-sets in the first round. His reward is a clash with fourth seed Daniil Medvedev. The Russian was perhaps not at his very best against Frances Tiafoe, but he survived unscathed, winning in four. Expect an improved display in this one.
Prediction: Medvedev in 3
Yesh: Medvedev was solid, if not spectacular, against Tiafoe, a potentially dangerous opponent and a quarterfinalist in Melbourne last season. He should cruise through this one.
Prediction: Medvedev in 3
Damian: Tiafoe gave the Russian a pretty good test in the first round, but it doesn’t seem like Martinez will be able to the same. Only a select few can outlast Medvedev from the back of the court and the Spaniard doesn’t have the power to hit through the fourth seed. Which all rather points towards a comfortable Medvedev win.
Prediction: Medvedev in 3
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Gael Monfils vs Ivo Karlovic
Jim: Unsurprisingly, Lu Yen-hsun, playing in Melbourne on a protected ranking after a year and a half out of the game, proved no match for tenth seed Gael Monfils, who recorded a comfortable 6-1 6-4 6-2 win. Ivo Karlovic, meanwhile, rolled back the years to beat Canada’s Vasek Pospisil in three. But the Frenchman Monfils has the athleticism and the power to cause Karlovic problems that Pospisil could not.
Prediction: Monfils in 4
Yesh: Karlovic dialled back the years in a good win, but his serve just isn’t what it once was and he has never been one of the best from the back of the court. At almost 41 years old, his time of taking on the top players and beating them is well past.
Prediction: Monfils in 3
Damian: Monfils and Karlovic may not be a classic rivalry, but it is a great match up. Karlovic’s baseline game was surprisingly good in his win over Pospisil, but he obviously won’t win many rallies that go over five shots here. Monfils will surely create more chances, but will he take them? Maybe, but this should be just as close as every match Karlovic plays.
Prediction: Monfils in 4
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Pablo Carreno Busta vs Peter Gojowczyk
Jim: After injuries saw him plummet out of the top ten, Pablo Carreno Busta has been working hard to rebuild his career. He claimed a solid first-round win over lucky loser Jozef Kovalik, although he will perhaps have been disappointed to drop a set. Peter Gojowczyk, meanwhile, beat fellow qualifier Christopher Eubanks, also in four sets. But Carreno Busta’s consistent groundstrokes, particularly his excellent backhand, should prove the difference here.
Prediction: Carreno Busta in 4
Yesh: Gojowczyk played very well to get through the big-serving American Christopher Eubanks in the first round, but Carreno Busta is a different style and level of player. The Spaniard cruises into the third round at the Australian Open.
Prediction: Carreno Busta in 3
Damian: The German Gojowczyk has a big, yet wildly inconsistent game due to how flat he hits his groundstrokes. And with the surface reported to be rather slow, this hurts his chances to beat a player who moves as well as Carreno Busta.
Prediction: Carreno Busta in 4
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Andrey Rublev vs Yuichi Sugita
Jim: Barring a mid-match wobble, Andrey Rublev delivered a solid performance to beat wild card Christopher O’Connell in the first round and he will surely like his chances up against Yuichi Sugita. The Japanese scored a good win of his own over French qualifier Elliot Benchetrit, but he simply doesn’t have the weaponry to hurt Rublev if the Russian is on his game.
Prediction: Rublev in 3
Yesh: Sugita is in impressive form right now. Rublev is definitely the better player, but he was a bit wobbly in his opening match. Wobble against Sugita, and things won’t end well. That said, he should have enough power to edge past the Japanese.
Prediction: Rublev in 5
Damian: Rublev was bagelled by Christopher O’Connell in the first round at the Australian Open, but still won the match in four. Even if he’s a bit weary from playing a ton of tennis in the past few weeks, the confidence he has right now on this 13-match winning streak will surely see him through the challenge of Sugita.
Prediction: Rublev in 4
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