For those not playing close attention to the sport, Daniil Medvedev’s run to the US Open final in 2019 must have come as something of a surprise. After all, just a season earlier, Medvedev had been unseeded in New York. But when he returned in 2019, the Russian was seeded fifth after a stunning post-Wimbledon run that saw him reach finals in Washington and Montreal, before claiming a Masters 1000 title in Cincinnati.
And though he had looked dead on his feet for much of the fortnight in Flushing Meadows, Medvedev battled valiantly through the draw, taking advantage of the early exits of Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer, who were both carrying injuries, to reach the final. There, he battled back from two-sets down against Rafael Nadal to force a decider, before ultimately falling just short after four hours and 50 minutes of enthralling tennis.
Undeterred by that defeat, Medvedev returned to action barely a fortnight later at the St Petersburg Open, where he won the title without dropping a set and he backed that up by winning his second Masters crown in Shanghai. He now heads to Melbourne Park, where he will begin his campaign against American standout Frances Tiafoe as the fourth seed and one of the pre-tournament favourites. There are plenty of reasons to believe he deserves that tag.
Prowess demonstrated in 2019
Medvedev could not have played much better during the North American summer hard-court swing. At the Washington Open, he stormed into the final without dropping a set, only to run into a red-hot Nick Kyrgios, who claimed a narrow 7-6 7-6 win. A week later in Montreal for the Rogers Cup, he again reached the final without dropping a set, beating two top-ten players – Dominic Thiem and Karen Khachanov – in the process.
In that final, his first at Masters 1000 level, the occasion, and possible fatigue, seemed to get the better of him, with Nadal recording a comprehensive 6-3 6-0 win. But Medvedev bounced back at the Cincinnati Masters, winning the title in dominant fashion. Indeed, the only player to take a set off the Russian was then-defending champion Djokovic in the semifinals. No one else proved able to lay a glove on Medvedev in Ohio.
Whilst that run of wins had clearly taken a lot out of Medvedev by the time he arrived in New York, he battled through the exhaustion, and against the hostile New York crowds to reach the final, pushing the great Nadal to the brink. And despite not managing to win the title at the US Open, that fortnight has surely given Medvedev invaluable experience of playing best-of-five set tennis on the biggest stages of the sport, as well as the knowledge that he can mix it with the best in the world.
Why Medvedev Can Reach the Final
Medvedev established himself as one of the best hard-courters in the men’s game over the course of 2019, winning 46 matches on the surface, ten more than any other players. That is some record. He also may have less experience than the august trio of Nadal, Federer and Djokovic, but he is rapidly improving on his resume and has thus far looked entirely untroubled by the attendant pressures of a ranking inside the world’s top four.
It is also worth-remembering that he played well at Melbourne Park last season, reaching the fourth round where he gave eventual champion Djokovic his toughest match of the tournament. He kept the Serbian on court for three hours and 16 minutes, with the match closer than the 6-4 6-7 6-2 6-3 suggests. Nadal, by comparison, lasted just over two hours in the final. And on his return to Melbourne, Medvedev will enjoy the protection of a top-four seeding, with a favourable looking draw.
Early Round Opponents
On paper, 2019 quarterfinalist Tiafoe looks like a tough first-round draw for the fourth seed. The American certainly has a big game. But Medvedev won their only previous tour-level meeting last season at the Washington Open in straight-sets and Tiafoe has struggled to back up his run at Melbourne Park, falling to 50th in the world, down 21 places from his career-high. In the second round, he will face either Dominik Koepfer, who he beat at last year’s US Open, or world #168 Pedro Martinez.
28th seed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is his projected third-round opponent. The Frenchman has enjoyed an excellent career, famously reaching the final at Melbourne Park in 2008 and winning 18 tour-level titles. But at 34, he is no longer the force he once was and it is hard to see him being able to hit through Medvedev’s rightly vaunted defence or withstand the Russian’s own power-hitting. Stan Wawrinka and John Isner are potential fourth-round foes, but Wawrinka, like Tsonga, looks to be past his best whilst Isner has a relatively poor record in Australia.
From the Last Eight Onwards?
World #7 Alexander Zverev is his seeded quarterfinal opponent and the German has given Medvedev trouble in the past, winning five of their six meetings. But he has made an indifferent start to the year and his struggles at the Majors are well-publicised. He is still yet to pass the fourth round at any of the Grand Slams aside from Roland Garros. David Goffin and Andrey Rublev are the two other standout names in that section of the draw.
Both have made good starts to the year and have the game to provide Medvedev with a real challenge. But Medvedev has won two of his three meetings with the Belgian Goffin, including in straight-sets at the Australian Open last season, whilst Rublev has lost all three of his matches against his countryman. If Medvedev does, as expected, reach the semifinals, the man almost certain to be waiting for him there is none other than 2009 champion Nadal.
Medvedev has not yet beaten the Spaniard, but showed at the US Open that he can compete with him. And in Melbourne, Nadal faces a challenging draw. Nick Kyrgios is in his section and the Australian always relishes taking on Nadal, with whom he enjoys a less than cordial relationship. Fifth seed Thiem, a growing presence on the hard courts, and the always dangerous Gael Monfils, also lurk in the world #1’s quarter.
That could give Medvedev a real chance to get the better of the Spaniard should they meet in the semifinals and reach his second Grand Slam final. The Russian will certainly be one to watch over the course of the fortnight. His performance against Tiafoe should give a good indication of his form, with the Russian looking to back up a strong showing at the ATP Cup. But it would not be a surprise were he to find himself in the final in two weeks time.
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