The Australian Open kicks off in only a few hours. Excitement is at fever pitch and Melbourne is ready. The Women’s Draw in the Grand Slams has seemed much more open than the Men’s of late. The key statistics have been gathered and assessed to try to solve the conundrum.
Stats Corner: Who wins the Women’s Australian Open?
Serena Williams on a hard-court is still the best around
Williams’ modern statistics often need to be taken with a pinch of salt. Her schedule is a lot more streamlined than most WTA players so her twelve-month sample sizes are often quite small. However, even taking this into account, her hold/break numbers on hard court are still a level or two above anybody else in the field. This stat is also helped by the absence of Bianca Andreescu.
The young, up and coming American ladies have a clear area of improvement. Both Amanda Anisimova and Coco Gauff so far have poor service hold numbers compared to the elite. Kiki Bertens is a bit short on return data to win in Australia. However, Marketa Vondrousova, again from a small sample, has superb hold/break numbers which could hint at a real threat from the young Czech.
Barty and Halep bring their best to the big occasions
The Australian and the Romanian performed the best across all the Grand Slams in 2019. This is despite both having had long histories of not being clinical on the big stage. Serena Williams’ Grand Slam career is just incredible, but Naomi Osaka is building a great record here too.
Outside of the favourites, Elina Svitolina had a remarkably consistent set of Grand Slam results in 2019. Aryna Sabalenka and Angelique Kerber couldn’t manage winning records last year. Sofia Kenin has so far struggled in Grand Slams as well, but time is on her side with this.
Naomi Osaka in red-hot form
It is the Japanese and Serena Williams who arrive at Melbourne with nine wins in their last ten matches. Osaka has also shown great form against the best. Only Ashleigh Barty can match Osaka’s seven wins in their last ten against fellow top ten players.
Halep and Kerber have won only four matches in their last ten. Anisimova has yet to prove she can beat the best consistently. Numerous members of the “old guard” have begun to struggle against the elite as well. Kerber, Petra Kvitova and Garbine Muguruza have won only three of ten against the top ten.
Serena Williams the rightful favorite
The statistics, even the more recent ones, give a big edge to Williams. This doesn’t always play out over the course of a best-of-three encounter though. There are a number of other players with impressive stats who can overturn Williams on a given day.
Karolina Pliskova has good statistics across all measures and could finally put a long run together. Marketa Vondrousova could surprise a lot of people, as she did in Paris. But, the greatest challengers must be Naomi Osaka and Ashleigh Barty. Both players are showing excellent form, a good recent Grand Slam record and consistent elite-level hold/break data on hard courts.
It is shaping up to be an excellent tournament.
Main Photo from Getty.
