ATP Stockholm Final Prediction - Denis Shapovalov vs Filip Krajinovic

Stockholm Open Final Prediction

Denis Shapovalov vs Filip Krajinovic

Head-to-head: first meeting

Ahead of the Stockholm Open semifinals, Shapovalov had looked to be in good position to finally win his first tour-level semifinal. In the quarterfinals, he had hammered Cedrik-Marcel Stebe, while Yuichi Sugita, the man waiting for him in the last four, had spurned nine match points before eventually closing out a 6-2 4-6 7-6 win over the retiring Janko Tipsarevic. Instead, Shapovalov’s wait for a maiden appearance in a tour-level final had looked set to continue.

Although he did manage to land some powerful haymakers, those blows were heavily outnumbered by poor errors. An attempted inside-out forehand winner sailed wide of the mark cost him his serve in the sixth game of the match, leaving him facing the prospect of losing a 15^th consecutive set in a tour-level semifinal. He missed wide again with his first shot of the next point and in frustration smashed his racquet into pieces.

And there the match turned. Although he picked up a warning for racquet abuse, venting his anger on his Yonex helped him to focus and he broke back immediately. He then escaped a 0-30 hole when down 4-5 and that seemed to break Sugita’s spirit. Shapovalov broke again late in the opening set to seal before running away with the second, putting on a clinic of attacking tennis to seal a 7-5 6-2 win and his place in the first tour-level final of his career.

Krajinovic too had to overcome a poor start. Up against Pablo Carreno Busta, the Serbian quickly found himself down 0-4. Although he mounted a late fightback to give the score a veneer of respectability, it was too late to save the situation in the first as Carreno Busta took it 6-4. But that was as good as it got for the Spaniard. With a troublesome back requiring treatment, he wasted several break point opportunities which would have turned the tide in his favor.

Krajinovic proved rather less forgiving. As Carreno Busta’s challenge faded in the decider, he seized his chance, winning 12 of the last 14 points to claim a 4-6 6-3 6-3 win and his place in the third tour-level final of his career. He lost the first to Jack Sock at the Paris Masters in 2017, despite having won the first set, before being edged out by the fast rising Matteo Berrettini in Budapest earlier this year, losing 6-4 3-6 1-6.

There appears to be little to split this pair, with their ELO Ratings very similar. Shapovalov plays the more exciting tennis, but Krajinovic is a solid professional. He spreads the court excellently off the forehand side and can also use his backhand to good effect. He may well also have a better grip of his nerves. This is, after all, his third final. If Shapovalov is nervous, he will almost certainly struggle to execute effectively. Expect Krajinovic to take advantage.

Prediction: Krajinovic in 2