The Intrum Stockholm Open is quickly moving toward its finish line. Only four men remain alive at the Swedish capital: two seeds, a lucky loser and talented outsider looking for his first career title. Who will advance to Sunday’s final? We have Yuichi Sugita vs Denis Shapovalov and Filip Krajinovic vs Pablo Carreno Busta.
ATP Stockholm Semifinal Predictions
Yuichi Sugita vs Denis Shapovalov
Head to head: Shapovalov 1-0 Sugita
Sugita lost in qualifying to Alexei Popyrin, who was defeated by Shapovalov in the round of 16. Hence, the Canadian should advance, right?
Nope. That reasoning is as asinine as it gets. Tennis isn’t math. There are too many variables in play. Never trust such a simple assumption.
On the one hand, according to Tennis Abstract’s tournament forecast, Shapovalov is the favorite to hoist the champion’s trophy. The 20-year-old is certainly playing sensational tennis. His 6-0 6-3 shellacking of Cedrik-Marcel Stebe was one of his best performances of his young career.
On the other hand, Shapovalov tends to flop in tour-level semifinals. In fact, the former Wimbledon boys champion is winless in seven attempts. Somehow, he’s an alarming 0-14 in sets. Sure, a player usually faces tougher opposition in the semis than earlier in a tournament. Yet, his return stats are abysmal. Per Tennis Abstract, his break rate stands at an anemic 2.9% (down from an already poor 17.6% over the past 52 weeks) and his overall percentage of return points won also plummets to 24.2% (down from 35.2%).
If Shapovalov manages to post close to average numbers against Sugita, he’s the likely victor. The Japanese, at the peak of his powers, pushed him to a third set tiebreak in Basel two years ago, but the current, more mature version of Shapovalov should dominate.
Prediction: Shapovalov in 2
Filip Krajinovic vs Pablo Carreño Busta
Official head to head: first meeting
Unofficial head to head: Krajinovic 1-1 Carreño
The two precedents went the distance, but they happened on clay four and six years ago. No conclusions should be taken aside from the fact neither player will beat himself. Both are savvy baseliners. Fans who enjoy long rallies must not miss this duel.
Carreño typically plays it safe. Ill-advised down the line shots are not part of his repertoire. He feels comfortable hitting crosscourt balls over and over until he sees a reasonable opening. For his part, Krajinovic likes to spice it up a bit more. The Serbian will approach the net at a higher rate, but he needs to pick the right moments, because the Spaniard is a great passer.
I believe this matchup is quite even, it should come down to tiny details. Away from grass, Carreño has been very reliable throughout his career against lower ranked foes. Furthermore, the 28-year-old is far more experienced in late stages of tour-level events. Across all surfaces, Stockholm will mark Carreño’s 21st semifinal, whereas this will be just Krajinovic’s fifth appearance overall.
Prediction: Carreño Busta in 3
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