It’s quarterfinal day at the ATP Kremlin Cup in Moscow and the locals will be hoping that their men can make it into the semifinals to keep alive the prospect of an all-Russian ATP Kremlin Cup final.
Read our thoughts on all of the quarterfinals below:
ATP Kremlin Cup Quarterfinal Predictions
Nikola Milojevic vs Andrey Rublev
Head-to-Head: No previous meetings
The Serbian was able to take advantage of his luckiest of lucky loser draws by weathering the early storm of local youngster Alen Avidzba before dishing out a bagel in the second set.
Rublev, on the other hand, had a total war with Egor Gerasimov to make it to this stage. The Moscow-born star may have felt he should have made it easier on himself by taking the second set having been 4-1 up in the tiebreak. The recovery from that disappointment was impressive though and he managed to break twice in the decider to wrap up a hard-fought win.
There should be a bit of a gulf in class between these two. They have never met on the court before but Rublev sits over a hundred places higher in the ATP rankings. Rublev has also been playing on the main tour for a number of years, despite still only being 21. Milojevic only has 25 main tour matches to his name, including qualifying, whereas as this will be Rublev’s 205th.
After having to expend so much energy in the first two rounds Rublev will surely be looking to conserve some here. His only problem could be complacency, but having the draw open up for him at his home tournament should be enough motivation to remain professional. Expect the Russian to progress in straight sets.
Prediction: Rublev in 2
Adrian Mannarino vs Dusan Lajovic
Head-to-Head: Lajovic 2-0 Mannarino
The Frenchman continued his bewitching hoodoo over Mikhail Kukushkin in the previous round, surviving the Kazakh serving for the first set. Once Mannarino had taken the opener in a tiebreak he capitalised on the low morale of his opponent and ran out a very comfortable winner in the end. That makes it 7-0 to Mannarino in that particular match-up.
Lajovic denied himself a comfortable straight-sets victory in myriad ways against Lukas Rosol. From failing to take a breakpoint to serve for the match at 5-2, to getting broken to love when serving at 5-4 and finally losing a match point in the tiebreak, Lajovic had a real mental hurdle to climb over at the beginning of the third set.
The two men are very evenly matched across the range of statistics on indoor hard. They both have a 50% win rate on the surface in the last year. Mannarino breaks his opponents more often, but Lajovic has been able to hold serve more. Their head-to-head record is recent, so could be relevant. Lajovic beat Mannarino on an indoor hard surface in Basel late last year and again on hard in Doha this year.
However, on recent form, Mannarino does seem to be playing the better tennis. He has produced almost carbon copy victories in the opening two rounds here. Whereas Lajovic hasn’t managed to string two wins together since his title win in Umag in July. Expect Mannarino to progress here in a battle.
Prediction: Mannarino in 3
Jeremy Chardy vs Marin Cilic
Head-to-Head: Cilic 3-2 Chardy
The Frenchman has been impressive so far this week. He has yet to face a breakpoint in his two matches and has been able to break his opponents, Nicolas Jarry and Miomir Kecmanovic, in every set.
This will be Marin Cilic’s third quarterfinal of the season and he will be very keen to convert this one having failed to do so earlier in the year. He enjoyed coming up against a below-par serving performance, only 39% first serves in, by fellow Croat Ivo Karlovic in the second round, as Cilic broke twice for a 6-1 set. It got a bit nervier in the second, though, but Cilic squeezed through in a tiebreak for a straight-sets win.
The head-to-head record for this pair stretches back to 2009 and they haven’t played each other since a clay court meeting in 2017, so there isn’t that much relevant information we can take from it. On recent form, Chardy has the edge, but there is no doubt that Cilic is the man who has a higher top level if he can find it.
It wouldn’t be a surprise to see at least one tiebreak in this match and whoever wins it would stand the best chance of progressing. Chardy’s confidence is high and his serve is in rhythm so the Frenchman may just edge this battle.
Prediction: Chardy in 3
Andreas Seppi vs Karen Khachanov
Head-to-Head: Khachanov 1-0 Seppi
The veteran Italian has been able to show all his experience in progressing through two three-set battles to reach the quarterfinals. He has lost the first-set against both Cristian Garin and Roberto Carballes Baena before coming back to win, and in the second round, he did so relatively comfortably as his opponent tailed off.
The defending champion had to go right to the wire against Philipp Kohlschreiber in the second round. The German had five match points late in a very tense third set to seal the victory but failed to take any of them. The Russian crowd roared in delight as Khachanov took his first match point to win the tiebreak 9-7. Thankfully for Khachanov, he has had a day off to recover from that emotionally draining encounter.
The only occasion that the pair have met before on tour saw Khachanov run out a straightforward winner on an indoor hard court surface. The statistics would suggest that Khachanov also has the edge. When playing indoors in the last twelve months Khachanov has held serve a whopping 12% more than Seppi. It would be an excellent performance if Seppi were to come through here but I think that Khachanov really wants to defend this title successfully and is going to give his all to do that.
Prediction: Khachanov in 3
Main Photo from Getty.
Disagree with our ATP Kremlin Cup Quarterfinal Predictions? As always, feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments.
