After a thrilling start to the Kremlin Cup in Moscow, with a number of close contests featuring remarkable comebacks and match point saves, the first round is all but complete, with just two round of 32 clashes left on the slate. The second round will see the big guns join the fray and the competition intensify. But who will be left standing ahead of day four at the Kremlin Cup?
Kremlin Cup Day Three Predictions
Adrian Mannarino vs Mikhail Kukushkin
Head-to-head: Mannarino 6-0 Kukushkin
This is surely one of the more surprising head-to-head records on the tour. Adrian Mannarino has more than had the measure of Mikhail Kukushkin so far in their careers, beating the Kazakh in all six of their previous meetings stretching back to a 6-2 6-4 win at the Surbiton Challenger in 2008. They have met twice already this year. The two matches came in quick succession in Montreal and Cincinnati and Mannarino was once again untroubled in beating Kukushkin 6-4 6-4 then 6-1 6-3.
However, the pair have never met indoors which may give Kukushkin some hope of earning his revenge. He has compiled a much better record on indoor hard courts than the Frenchman, winning 15 of the 22 matches he has played under a roof in the last 12 months. Mannarino, in contrast, has gone 7-8 in the same period. And Kukushkin holds serve and breaks his opponents noticeably more often than Mannarino indoors. If ever Kukushkin is going to break his Mannarino hoodoo, it will be indoors.
Prediction: Kukushkin in 3
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Egor Gerasimov vs Thomas Fabbiano
Head-to-head: first meeting
The big Belarusian Egor Gerasimov comes into this match in terrific form. In St. Petersburg, he reached the last four as a qualifier, where he gave US Open finalist Daniil Medvedev a run for his money, and he backed that result up by reaching the quarterfinals in Chengdu, upsetting John Isner en route. But he may not have things all his own way up against the Italian Thomas Fabbiano. Although most of his countrymen are at their best on the clay, Fabbiano is a man for all surfaces.
He started his year with a run to the third round at the Australian Open. He then ended Stefanos Tsitsipas’ Wimbledon challenge in the first round, before claiming another top ten scalp in the shape of Dominic Thiem in the first round at the US Open. That said, the Italian is on a run of six successive ATP tour-level defeats. Unsurprisingly then, it is Gerasimov who holds the statistical edge. He has been holding serve a massive 14% more often than Fabbiano indoors and breaking more often. Expect Gerasimov to progress here and to do so fairly comfortably.
Prediction: Gerasimov in 2
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Philipp Kohlschreiber vs Karen Khachanov
Head-to-head: Kohlschreiber 3 – 1 Khachanov
Karen Khachanov will start his title defence in the Russian capital on day three when he takes on Philipp Kohlschreiber. He is surely the favourite on paper, but it is worth noting that Kohlschreiber has had the better of this rivalry. Indeed, the only victory Khachanov has scored over the German came in their first meeting back in 2016 on the clay in Kitzbuhel when he was ranked outside the top 100. Moreover, Kohlschreiber is in good form after completing a straightforward straight-sets win over Pierre-Hugues Herbert in the first round.
But his first-serve percentage was low throughout, he landed just 44% of his first deliveries and he will need to improve on that against Khachanov. Particularly because the Russian has an outstanding record indoors. Over the last twelve months, he has held 90% of his service games, whilst breaking in a quarter of his opponent’s service games. Kohlschreiber holds reliably enough indoors, but struggles to break his opponents. Khachanov, with a title defend and 250 points which could keep his slim London hopes alive, will not lack motivation. Expect him to prove too strong for the veteran Kohlschreiber.
Prediction: Khachanov in 2
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