Just 16 men remain in contention at the Shanghai Masters ahead of what should be an entertaining day of third-round action. As ever, we here at LWOT are offering predictions for all eight matches including defending champion Novak Djokovic’s clash with John Isner. But who will punch their ticket into the quarterfinals?
Shanghai Masters Day Four Predictions
Daniil Medvedev vs Vasek Pospisil
Head-to-head: first meeting
Daniil Medvedev is perhaps the most in-form player on the ATP Tour. In the past few months, the Russian has won the Cincinnati Masters and the St. Petersburg Open, as well as reaching the final at the Rogers Cup, the Citi Open and the US Open. Undoubtedly, Medvedev is an elite player. Vasek Pospisil, meanwhile, continues to show flashes of brilliance, reminiscent of the sort of tennis that took him to the Wimbledon quarterfinals and the top 25 in 2014.
Though he struggles to play at that level with any sort of consistency, he can still do damage. Just ask Diego Schwartzman, the 14th seed in Shanghai, who fell to the current world #248 in straight sets. Serving 11 aces and winning every point behind his first serve, the Canadian controlled the court against the Argentine commendably. If Pospisil can maintain that level, he may have the slightest of chances. But Medvedev is extraordinarily hard to beat and should be able to grind Pospisil down.
Prediction: Medvedev in 2
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Fabio Fognini vs Karen Khachanov
Head-to-head: Khachanov 1-0 Fognini
This could well prove to be a repeat of their recent China Open clash. In that match, after withstanding a fast start from Fabio Fognini, the hard-hitting Russian Karen Khachanov was able to work his way back into the contest in the second, before storming through the decider to claim a 3-6 6-3 6-1 win. So far in Shanghai, Fognini has played some good tennis and held his nerve impressively to beat former-world #1 Andy Murray in a bad-tempered affair. But the Italian struggled to defend his serve and was broken six times by the Briton, who twice served for the match. Against the power of Khachanov, who has found some form and crushed Taylor Fritz 6-4 6-2 in his opener, he is unlikely to get another reprieve.
Prediction: Khachanov in 3
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Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Dominic Thiem
Head-to-head: Basilashvili 1-0 Thiem
The in-form Dominic Thiem, who secured his spot at the ATP Finals in London and then some by winning the title in Beijing, will surely have high hopes of avenging his 2017 Sofia Open defeat to Nikoloz Basilashvili when they take to the court at the Shanghai Masters. The Austrian picked up from where he left off in the Chinese capital in his Shanghai opener, dispatching the Spanish qualifier Pablo Carreno Busta, 7-6 6-3, courtesy of some fine play.
But he might find Basilashvili a tougher nut to crack. The world #26 may have seen his title-defence at the China Open end in a second-round defeat at the hands of eventual finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas, but he remains a formidable foe, particularly on a fast hard court. That said, he has had to battle for his place in the third round, with both Radu Albot and Benoit Paire having taken him the distance. He may well find himself going three again in the last 16, but expect it to be the much-improved Thiem who emerges victorious.
Prediction: Thiem in 3
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David Goffin vs Roger Federer
Head-to-head: Goffin 1-9 Federer
David Goffin is finding his form. After a run to the semifinals at the Japan Open, the world #14 has started strong at the Shanghai Masters, picking up a commanding 6-2 6-3 win over Richard Gasquet in the first round. He won 78% of the points behind his first serve and an even better 79% behind his second. His serve wasn’t as solid in the second round, but Goffin still had more than enough for Mikhail Kukushkin. The 13th seed was up a set and a break before Kukushkin retired.
However, his next challenge, Roger Federer, might be insurmountable. Federer enjoys a solid 9-1 head to head against Goffin and whilst his summer in North America was disappointing, he has typically enjoyed the Asian swing. The Swiss has claimed the Shanghai Masters title twice and a third could follow this year. Certainly Goffin has the game to trouble Federer at times, but it’s hard to see any outcome other than a Federer win.
Prediction: Federer in 2
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