In contrast to the Big Three dominated men’s game, the field on the WTA tour is seemingly wide open heading into every Major. As a result, it can be hard to predict with any certainty who will emerge victorious at the conclusion of a Grand Slam. But recent form and historical statistics can still provide a useful, and interesting, guide about the contenders’ chances heading into the US Open.
Who should be the US Open favourite?
Purely statistically there is no getting away from the fact that Serena Williams possesses the most convincing data going into the tournament. Despite her advancing years and lack of titles in the last twelve months, she still has the best hold/break data on hard courts on the tour, which means that she holds breaks serve often. That’s a pretty good base to start from, and from there it should just be a matter of maintaining fitness throughout a whole tournament, which she failed to do in Toronto, and winning the big matches, which she failed to do at Wimbledon.
If that casts some doubt over Williams’ position as favourite heading into the US Open, so too does the fact that her closest challengers are mainly recent Grand Slam champions. Simona Halep now has two, and on different surfaces, after dismantling Williams in under an hour in the final at the All England Club in July. Ash Barty, meanwhile, broke her duck by winning Roland Garros and Naomi Osaka famously triumphed in New York a year ago before following it up with victory at Melbourne Park.
Statistically speaking though, none of those players can match Williams’ record on a hard court and the data displays other weaknesses. Halep comes in with a horrendous Flushing Meadows record, losing in the first round in the last two years. Barty’s US Open record isn’t great either, and her career Grand Slam record is the poorest of the favourites. Whilst Osaka is defending champion and has an excellent record at the hard-court Majors, she is in very poor form coming into New York. The Japanese has won just five of her last ten matches and only 40% of matches she has played against top 10 players recently.
The Best of the Rest
Bianca Andreescu is the one name that stands out when assessing the rest of the field. Her hold/break data on hard courts in the last twelve months is second only to Williams’. She also carries an unbelievable record into the tournament of never having been beaten by a top 10 player. She has played seven and won seven against that elite number. However, this will be her first main draw appearance at Flushing Meadows, having fallen at the first qualifying stage in the last two years. One would think it may be too much to ask for the young Canadian to go all the way at the first attempt, especially with her fitness still uncertain.
The next best pick from the data comes in the shape of Karolina Pliskova. Unlike many of the others already discussed she does have excellent form at the Open. A finalist in 2016, she has since backed that up with successive quarterfinal appearances. She has won seven of her last 10 matches and has a pretty good hold/break number, in large part thanks to her powerful serve. The worry with the Czech is whether her best is good enough. She is still without a Grand Slam title, despite being at the top of the game for a few years now.
The final name to throw into the mix is the player with the most recent form in the book, Madison Keys. Going into Cincinnati, she looked listless, but she played some superb tennis in Ohio and that has brought her back into the mix. She has a superb recent record at the US Open, finishing as runner-up in 2017 and reaching the semifinals last season. She also has the third-best record at holding serve on hard courts.
Questions to answer for big names
The remainder of the field has serious questions to answer according to various aspects of the US Open statistics. 2017 US Open champion Sloane Stephens is highlighted negatively on current form (40%) and has a really poor record on serve in the last twelve months. 2016 champion Angelique Kerber is carrying a 30% win record against members of the top ten, Petra Kvitova’s record is not much better at 40%. Elina Svitolina has never made it past the last 16 at Flushing Meadows, Kiki Bertens’ Grand Slam record is poor and Aryna Sabalenka’s is worse.
The young guns also have challenges to overcome. Belinda Bencic seems to struggle on serve in comparison to most, Sofia Kenin hasn’t yet broken through at Grand Slam level, though she does look likely improve on that in the next two weeks based on her recent form. French Open finalist Marketa Vondrousova hasn’t been seen since losing to Madison Brengle in the first round of Wimbledon, so judging her chances is impossible.
Who will win the US Open 2019?
Despite having the most compelling statistics, Williams surely cannot be accounted as the favourite for the title. There are still too many question marks over both her fitness and her mental state. The real problem is that the stats do not make a particularly compelling case for anyone else either. Andreescu looks to have a good chance of making a deep run, but the title looks destined to be beyond her. Keys, Halep and Barty might just have the best chance. Much will depend on the draw, however, and Halep, in particular, could do with being eased in.
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