After an exciting beginning to the tournament, the round of 16 at the Rogers Cup in Montreal will be completed on Thursday. There is no shortage of star names on the slate, with the likes of Rafael Nadal and Daniil Medvedev in action in the top half of the draw. The bottom half also features plenty of star power and a great day of tennis should be in store. But who will reach the quarterfinals?
ATP Montreal Rogers Cup Day Four Predictions
Gael Monfils vs Hubert Hurkacz
Head to Head: never played
Gael Monfils takes on Hubert Hurkacz in round of 16 action at the Rogers Cup. Monfils has had a successful return from injury beating Peter Polansky and Ilya Ivashka. Hurkacz has been very impressive so far this tournament, winning against Taylor Fritz and Stefanos Tsitsipas.
These two have never played before. Monfils will look to defend and counterpunch while Hurkacz will try to play first-strike tennis. Given that Monfils is just coming back from injury and how impressive Hurkacz has looked this tournament, I expect Hurkacz to prevail in this one.
Prediction: Hurkacz in 3
Alexander Zverev vs Nikoloz Basilashvili
Head-to-head: 2-1 Zverev
Alexander Zverev beat Cameron Norrie in straight sets to start the tournament after receiving a first-round bye as one of the top eight seeds at the Rogers Cup. Nikoloz Basilashvili, meanwhile, has picked up three-set wins over Dusan Lajovic of Serbia and Germany’s Jan-Lennard Struff to reach the third round, with the Georgian rallying from a set down in both matches.
Zverev leads the head to head 2-1, with both of his wins having come on hard courts. However, Basilashvili won their most recent meeting, which was contested on clay in Hamburg last month, in a match that went to a third set tiebreak. This match will likely be decided by who can sustain an aggressive mindset without hitting too many unforced errors. And whilst Zverev lost to Basilashvili recently, he is typically more able to play with controlled aggression than the world #17.
Prediction: Zverev in 3
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Marin Cilic vs Dominic Thiem
Head-to-head: 1-0 Thiem
Marin Cilic has won both of his matches this week in straight sets, beating Bradley Klahn and John Millman. After what has been a season of toil for the Croatian, those back-to-back wins, coupled with his run to the quarterfinals at the Washington Open, will be a welcome upturn in form. Dominic Thiem beat home favorite Denis Shapovalov in three sets to make the round of 16 after having a bye. That win, his first in Canada, was made all the more impressive by the fact that he was playing on clay in Europe last week.
Thiem leads the head to head 1-0, having beaten Cilic on a hard court in Brisbane in 2016. This match will likely come down to who can avoid lapses on serve and who can get the first strike in during the rallies. Thiem did well to beat Shapovalov, but Cilic has been playing well on hard courts for two weeks now, while Thiem has just come in from playing European clay. That should just about give the Croatian the edge in what looks set to be a close contest.
Prediction: Cilic in 3
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Karen Khachanov vs Felix Auger-Aliassime
Head-to-head: first meeting
Karen Khachanov, after receiving a bye in the first round, scored an impressive three-set victory over 2016 US Open champion Stan Wawrinka to make the round of 16. Young gun Felix Auger-Aliassime beat countryman Vasek Pospisil in the first round and then benefitted from fellow Canadian Milos Raonic’s retirement with the score level at 6-3 3-6 in the second round.
In this, the pair’s first meeting, a good performance from the line will be crucial to both men’s chances. Taking control of the rallies early will also be important as Khachanov and Auger-Aliassime can both hit winners off the ground with ease. Khachanov played great tennis to beat Wawrinka, while Auger-Aliassime has struggled to produce his very best tennis at his home tournament. As a result, expect the Russian to be the man who books his spot in the last eight.
Prediction: Khachanov in 3
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Fabio Fognini vs Adrian Mannarino
Head-to-head: Fognini 2-2 Mannarino
Fabio Fognini beat Tommy Paul of the USA in straight sets after receiving a first-round bye in his third match of the North American summer hard-court swing. Last week he reached the quarterfinals at the Los Cabos Open, losing there to the American Taylor Fritz. Adrian Mannarino has won both of his matches in straight sets, prevailing over Mikhail Kukushkin before crushing 11th seed Borna Coric 6-1 6-2. Indeed, Mannarino has not lost more than four games in a set so far this tournament.
The head to head is tied at two wins apiece, with Mannarino leading 2-1 on hard courts. But Fognini won the most recent meeting, beating Mannarino on a hard court in Sydney last year in three sets. Expect long rallies and players attempting to turn defense into attack. Fognini might possess more power, but the Frenchman Mannarino is a tricky player to face, as he hits a flat ball. He is playing great tennis and should feel confident about his chances of reaching the quarterfinals.
Prediction: Mannarino in 3
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