It may be an ATP 500, but the 2019 Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell boasts a star-studded semifinal line-up, featuring four players among the Top 8 in the Race to London.
ATP Barcelona Semifinal Predictions
Kei Nishikori vs Daniil Medvedev
Head to Head: Nishikori 2-1 Medvedev
To claim that Medvedev used to be a non-entity on clay is an understatement. His putrid 1-9 record on dirt between 2017 and 2018 seasons speaks for itself. But so does his robust 7-1 record in 2019, with a win over Novak Djokovic included. How on Earth has Medvedev gone from being clay-allergic to a bona fide juggernaut? The numbers indicate a tremendous improvement as a returner. The lanky Russian used to win a pedestrian 35 per cent of the points on that end during his two calamitous campaigns, whereas in 2019 he’s winning nearly 47 per cent of the time. The eye test, faulty at times, concurs with the statistics. It looks like Medvedev has completely bought into his coaches’ master plan of turning him into peak Gilles Simon with power. Scary thought.
Nishikori, in turn, has proven his abilities on clay for many years. Winner of the Barcelona Banc Sabadell Open in 2014 and 2015, the Japanese is the lone player not named Rafa to lift the singles trophy more than once in this century. Despite winning in straights, Nishikori did not perform close to his best in his quarterfinal bout against Roberto Carballes. Early on the second set, the 29-year-old wasted consecutive 0-40 situations that could have nearly sealed the deal. He cannot afford to be so forgiving versus a player of Medvedev’s caliber.
Prediction: Medvedev in 3
Rafael Nadal vs Dominic Thiem
Head to Head: Nadal 8-3 Thiem
Dominic Thiem was anointed as the next big thing on clay long ago. Nicknames abound for the Austrian: The Prince of Clay, The Natural Heir, Muster 2.0…Even though he has yet to win a Masters or the French Open on terre battue, Thiem has lived up to the hype, beating Nadal three times on his favorite surface. The racket-head speed generated by the current Roland Garros’ runner-up on his groundstrokes is second to none. Plus, he opens up the court with ease off both wings. Combining these two strengths is a recipe for success on clay, provided the opponent cannot do it better.
The best Nadal, though, plays in a different league. Any foe must perform lights out to even begin to disturb the Manacor native. Nevertheless, the current Nadal is no longer the athlete he once was. At 32 years of age, the 17-time major champion attacks better and plays smarter tennis overall, but he is not an unassailable wall anymore. Fabio Fognini, Leonardo Mayer and Jan-Lennard Struff showed that the King of Clay is vulnerable. Should Nadal fail to serve at a high level, an upset could be in the making. In his two more recent losses to Thiem (Rome ’17 and Madrid ’18), the Austrian won over 45 per cent of his return points. In no other duel has Thiem reached even the 37 per cent of success. Whoever wins this semifinal should be favored on Sunday.
Prediction: Nadal in 3
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