After four days of play, the number of men who still aspire to hoist the Australian Open singles trophy has been trimmed down to 32. I would like to pay tribute to one of those survivors, an overlooked player who has consistently performed like a star in Melbourne over the last few years: Andreas Seppi.
The 33-year-old is probably the antithesis of a fan favorite among locals. No pun intended, but the Aussies should not be very fond of a dude who has defeated home idols in Lleyton Hewitt (2014) and Nick Kyrgios (2017), aside from a humongous upset over Roger Federer in 2015.
Seppi entered this week with a ho-hum 327-350 career record on tour. At the Grand Slam level, the Italian stands at 53-50 at the time of writing, barely hovering over .500 on the back of strong showings Down Under in recent seasons.
Per Tennis Abstract, prior to 2013, Seppi had a weak 3-7 win/loss record in Melbourne. However, a mysterious switch was flipped five years ago that, before his R32 duel versus Ivo Karlovic this year, the Italian owns a robust 17-12 record. In other words, the Bolzano native has collected a whopping 14 wins in five years.
Sensational results at the Australian Open since 2013
The overachieving pattern is so bizarre it deserves to be examined more thoroughly.
In 2013, No. 21 seed Seppi beat Horacio Zeballos, Denis Istomin, and No. 12 Marin Cilic before crashing out to Jeremy Chardy in the round of 16.
A year later, this time seeded No. 24, Seppi ousted Lleyton Hewitt before falling to Donald Young. Sure, this five set loss could be seen as a dud. Or perhaps the exception that confirms the rule. However, if we dig deeper into the stats of the match on Tennis Abstract, the Italian posted a 1.10 dominance rate over the American. The superior player was unlucky. It happens.
In 2015, world No. 46 Seppi upended Denis Istomin, No. 29 Jeremy Chardy, and No. 2 Roger Federer en route to a 8-6 in the fifth thriller loss to Nick Kyrgios in the fourth round.
Two years ago, No. 28 favorite Seppi dismantled Teymuraz Gabashvili and Denis Kudla before succumbing versus No. 1 Novak Djokovic at his peak 6-1 7-5 7-6.
In 2017, Seppi showed up with limited aspirations, having plummeted to No. 89 in the world rankings. Yet, he managed to defeat Paul Henri Mathieu, No. 14 Nick Kyrgios, and Steve Darcis, narrowly conceding a triple tiebreak loss against No. 4 Stan Wawrinka.
Why not play a Challenger the week before a Slam?
Seppi failed to qualify for the Doha main draw in his season debut. He lost in Qatar to the unheralded Mirza Basic from Bosnia & Herzegovina. The week after, rather than taking part in one of the two tour-level warm-up events like Sydney or Auckland, Seppi gained momentum with a title at the Canberra Challenger after saving a match point in the first round against Maximilian Marterer.
The end seemed to be knocking on the door. But here he is again, under the radar, in the third round after beating French 18-year-old wild card Corentin Moutet and the speedy Yoshihito Nishioka. Going forward, Seppi appears to have a winnable pathway following premature losses by seeded players in his section such as Jack Sock, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Lucas Pouille, and Kevin Anderson.
Karlovic and either Kyle Edmund or Nikoloz Basilashvili are the only obstacles standing between Seppi and his maiden Grand Slam quarterfinal. You read that correctly.
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