The ATP Finals are upon us. This year’s event promises to be one of the most unexpected and even contests in the event’s history, with four players set to make their debuts at London’s O2 Arena. Rafael Nadal leads the rankings going into the round-robin stage of the tournament, having clinched ending the year as World #1 for the fourth time. He is due to face Belgium’s David Goffin, as well as Austria’s Dominic Thiem and Bulgarian Grigor Dimitrov in “Group Pete Sampras.” His arch-rival, and current World #2, Roger Federer, headlines the second group (“Group Boris Becker”). The six-time Tour Finals champion will go head-to-head with his Wimbledon final opponent this year, Marin Cilic, as well as the two debutants in Jack Sock and Alexander Zverev. The Finals format always leaves plenty of room for surprises, but this year, with the emergence of Goffin, Sock, Zverev, and Thiem, we could see a new ATP Finals champion crowned.
Points To Prove
Grigor Dimitrov and Jack Sock have long been touted as the next stars to take over the world of men’s tennis, by both fans and tennis experts alike. It is fair to say that both men have found it difficult to live up to the burden of expectation that has been bestowed upon them, and this tournament could be their chance to finally prove the critics wrong. Sock has just come off the back of an incredible win at the Paris Masters, and will be full of confidence going into this tournament, despite the fact that he did not have to face a single Top 10 player en route to the Paris title. He has an even head-to-head record against Zverev, and has a 2-0 lead over Marin Cilic when it comes to their head-to-head record. Sock will do well to advance from the group, probably behind Roger Federer (who Sock has never previously beaten).
Likewise, Grigor Dimitrov will be looking to add to his three titles this year with what would be the best achievement of his career to date. All three of the Bulgarian’s titles this year have come on hard courts, so the conditions will suit him. Nonetheless, he will have to combat his over-exuberance if he is to challenge for the title, especially in crucial clashes with Dominic Thiem and David Goffin. Dimitrov has the talent to win the title, that is beyond doubt. He has had some epic encounters with the top players over the years, most notably against Rafael Nadal at this year’s Australian Open, and he will be hoping that Nadal’s knee injury affects the Spaniard’s usual intensity and consistency when the pair meet.
Young Guns
What a year it has been for Dominic Thiem and Alexander Zverev. Both players have come of age and announced themselves on the big stage, which is great news for tennis fans. Prior to 2017, few would have predicted that Alexander Zverev, the 20-year-old German, would end the year with two ATP Masters 1000 titles (Rome and Montreal) and a spot among the World’s Top 8. The German gave himself the luxury of being able to choose between this event and the ATP NextGen finals in Milan, and he chose wisely. Although he would have had a better chance at the NextGen title, the experience that Zverev will get from playing in this event will be invaluable to his development as a player. Therefore, while he does not sit among the favourites for the title, the fact that he qualified for this prestigious tournament at all is a huge achievement in-and-of-itself.
Another player who will look to capitalize on a great year is Austrian Dominic Thiem. His most memorable win came at the Rome Masters, where he beat Rafael Nadal on clay, and he was also involved in THAT epic encounter with Juan Martin Del Potro at this year’s US Open, where the Argentine managed to resurrect his game from two-sets-to-love down to win in five. Thiem will be disappointed in the lack of titles that he has won this year. His only title came on clay, in Rio de Janeiro, and he will be keen to make amends in that department, going into next year. Although, like Zverev, Thiem does not sit among the favorites for this tournament, he will almost certainly entertain the London crowd with his shot-making and likable personality. He could even spring an upset on the way.
The Favourites
Although Marin Cilic and David Goffin have both also had great years (and their best performances have come on hard courts), it is difficult to see how any of the current crop can challenge the supremacy of Federer and Nadal, in the current form that they are in. Federer was in great spirits at a charity event in Glasgow, where he played an exhibition match against Andy Murray. Prior to this, the World #2 was in blistering form in Shanghai, where he outclassed Nadal in the final, and he has a winning head-to-head record against two of his three group opponents (Sock and Cilic). It seems as though his withdrawal from the Paris Masters was a signal of intent that he has his sights on a seventh World Tour Finals title. Federer is a master at knowing when to rest his body and to preserve confidence, which was probably the reason why he chose not to compete in Paris. The Swiss has the experience of delivering on the greatest stage, and the memories of missing out last year will have had an impact on him. It seems as though the title could be his for the taking, unless a certain Spaniard has other ideas.
Rafael Nadal’s much-publicized withdrawal from Paris did not cause as much of a stir as was the fact that a security guard failed to recognize him as he arrived for a practice session earlier in the tournament, and with good reason. Citing a knee injury, Nadal was clever to pull out of the tournament in order to give himself more time to prepare for the Tour Finals, and to get back to full fitness. Nadal has often suffered with fatigue and loss of form at this stage of the calendar year, and withdrawing from Paris to give himself some more time was a smart move. This is one of the few titles that the Spaniard has not won, and this is something that he will be looking to rectify, especially with such an open field of players.
It would be a fitting end, to what has been an enthralling tennis season, if Federer and Nadal were to meet in the final of this event. Federer currently has the upper hand when it comes to their meetings this year, but in this instance, Nadal is the favourite for the title. He has a winning head-to-head record against Federer (despite most of those wins coming on clay), and he will be absolutely aching to win the title in London for the first time. This will be what sees him over the line, come November 19th.
