Roger Federer is playing some of the best tennis of his entire career at the age of 36. What is even more remarkable is the way he destroyed world #1 Rafael Nadal in the Shanghai Masters final. The Swiss great has always performed impeccably at this stage of the season, so could he finish the year as the world’s best?
The Numbers
The demolition job that was the Shanghai final has certainly kept Federer’s hopes alive of ending a season as #1 for the sixth time in his career. The gap between Nadal and Federer in the 2017 rankings is 1,960 points – which is definitely possible to catch, given the tennis that Federer has played all year. There are still some big events left in the calendar and the Swiss will be hoping to replicate his recent performances to give himself the best chance of overtaking Nadal.
3,000 points are still to play for in both of these players’ schedules; therefore, a lot can happen. The battle still remains in the US Open champion’s hands, but as we saw in Shanghai, Federer has the ability to wrestle control off of the Spaniard. However, Nadal still remains in a healthy position and if he reaches the final of his last three events he will finish the season on top – regardless of if Federer defeats him in all three finals.
Last Few Events
The two tennis legends are playing the same three tournaments to end their outstanding seasons. They will be playing in Basel, Paris, and at the Nitto ATP Finals, where they qualified way before anyone else. Federer is a seven-time champion in Basel and a six-time champion at the ATP Finals although he has one solitary title in Paris. His numbers read very differently than Nadal’s; the Spaniard has never won in any of these three events, so the stars seem to be aligning for the Swiss. To add to this, Federer has won an astonishing twenty-two indoor titles, compared to just two from his rival.
Federer has played down his intentions of regaining the top spot as he said, “I’ll figure out my schedule regardless of #1 or not. When I’m prepared and ready, good things happen”. Of course the Swiss star wants to prioritise his health, especially after being on the sidelines for six months in 2016, but can he resist the temptation of ending the year as #1 for the first time since 2009? We are almost certain that we will see Federer in Basel; it is his home tournament after all, and he has enjoyed so much success there. The big question mark is Paris. If Federer manages to win in Basel then surely he will want to play in Bercy to gain some more ground on Nadal. We will just have to wait and see.
Will Nadal Play in Basel?
An additional boost to the the Wimbledon champion’s campaign is that we actually do not know if Nadal will even attend the ATP 500 event in Basel. After the Shanghai final Nadal explained, “I don’t know about Basel. I need to think about it. I cannot tell you now”. For the first time in a long time we saw strapping over the fragile knees of the Spaniard. Before the final he was on a 16-match winning streak on hard courts and maybe this surface is beginning to take its toll. The World #1 needs to decide whether to play Basel and gain even more points, or take time off and end the year fully fit.
Federer Has Turned This Rivalry Around
One of the main shocks of the year is how Federer has somehow got the better of his nemesis, Rafael Nadal. It is not just the results that are surprising but it is the manner in which the Swiss is dismissing his great rival. Federer has now won his last five meetings with the Spaniard and has not lost to him since 2014–nearly four years ago. In fact, the last time the Swiss was broken by Nadal was in the fifth set of the Australian Open final. Federer has won his last seven sets against Nadal, which beats his previous best streak against him of three.
The sudden change in their rivalry was on display in the Shanghai final where Federer absolutely destroyed Nadal to end the Spaniard’s 16-match winning streak. Federer will be a firm favorite if the pair are to meet again this year. They could be contesting a final or two in the next few weeks and if Federer can replicate his recent performance against Nadal, then he may give himself a shot of claiming the year end #1 ranking. Of course, if Nadal is to make three finals then it is impossible, but given the way he has historically performed at this stage of the season, this seems unlikely.
Can He Do It?
The power remains in Rafael Nadal’s hands but one early exit could open the doors for Federer. The Swiss is now a heavy favorite in each of the remaining three tournaments of the year and there is no doubt he will be eager to put himself in a good position. Essentially, the Wimbledon champion will have to win all three tournaments, but who can stop him at the moment? He has got the better of Nadal so many times at this stage of the season. Six of their seven post-US Open matches have gone to Federer, and this statistic is often overlooked. The next few weeks will be dramatic as Roger Federer will attempt to make become the second man ever (after Pete Sampras) to finish a season #1 six times.
