The two best players on the planet will battle it out on Sunday for the Shanghai Rolex Masters trophy. World #1 Rafael Nadal will face great rival and world #2 Roger Federer for the 38th time in their impressive careers. A lot is on the line in this match, but who will win?
What is on the line?
Although it seems extremely unlikely, the fight for year end #1 is still on and this match could determine whether that fight continues. A win for Federer would put him on 8,505 Race points – 1,960 behind Nadal. That may seem like a huge gap but there are more big events still to come in 2017 with some very hefty points. However, a win for the Spaniard will see him have a comfortable 2,760 point lead on his rival, which is essentially unassailable.
Both of these great champions are playing the same four tournaments to end their respective seasons: Shanghai, Basel, Paris, and the Nitto ATP Finals. A maximum of 3,000 points is still up for grabs, so there is still plenty to play for. Also take into consideration that Nadal has not always performed well in the tail end of the season as he has never managed to win a Paris title or a ATP Finals title. On the other hand, Roger Federer has excelled, which is shown by his six ATP Finals titles. The Shanghai final may decide who will finish the year as #1.
Another big incentive for these two players is to win the Shanghai Rolex Masters – something that has only been achieved once between them. The Spaniard has never won this title whereas the Swiss triumphed at the Shanghai Masters just once, in 2014.
Who Will Win?
The 16-time Slam champion has to go into the match as a slight favourite due to his blistering form on hard courts. Rafael Nadal is on a staggering 16-match win streak that started with his first round win at the US Open. His resurgence has seen him collect titles at the US Open and in Beijing. You also cannot ignore the fact that he has won 23 of his 38 meetings with Roger Federer. The World #1 has looked seriously impressive all week with superb wins against quality players like Grigor Dimitrov and Marin Cilic. If he is able to replicate his stunning performances then Nadal will give himself a massive chance to lift his first title in Shanghai.
Write Roger Federer off at your peril; he too has had an impressive week and has only lost four matches all year. The Australian Open and Wimbledon champion has won his last four matches against Nadal, including all three this year. The last final the Swiss lost against his great rival was back in 2013 in Rome. Although Federer has a losing record against Nadal, there is one aspect of their head to head that is often overlooked. Five out of their six post-US Open matches have gone to the 19-time Grand Slam champion. Roger Federer is a genius on fast courts and Shanghai has one of the fastest on tour. He will be feeling confident that he can pick up title number six of 2017.
My Prediction
I believe we will see Roger Federer come out and make the most of the fast court speed by playing super aggressive tennis. This may take some time for Nadal to get used to but I think once he finds his rhythm he will be impossible to stop.
Nadal in 3.
