The much anticipated first edition of the ATP NextGen Finals is merely sixteen weeks away. With seven months of the season already in the books, we have a solid grasp of which players the event will be composed of.
After taking a quick look at the live Race to Milan rankings, the modest positions of the up and coming Americans caught my attention. While none of the members of the ’96, ’97, or ’98 haul was considered a potential world beater like Alexander Zverev, their collective progress in recent years suggested the United States had a better farm system than any other nation.
Exceptions to the norm
Nevertheless, Jared Donaldson, at No. 7, in his final year of eligibility, is the lone USA youngster who’d be competing in Italy as of today. Nineteen-year-old Frances Tiafoe and Mexican-American Ernesto Escobedo are on the outside looking in, trailing Donaldson by only a handful of points.
While their Russian counterparts Karen Khachanov, Daniil Medvedev. or the brand new Croatia Open Umag champion Andrey Rublev have shone brighter thus far, the aforementioned trio all earn a passing grade, as they are currently sitting within the Top 100 of the Race to London.
Grades:
Donaldson: B
Tiafoe: B+
Escobedo: B
Down year is an understatement for the rest
Things get murkier from here. Taylor Fritz is the next best American at No. 14 with 262 accumulated ATP points. On one hand, he hasn’t yet turned 20, so he shouldn’t feel pressured to qualify. In fact, he’d make the traveling party if the birth-year cut-off was 1997. However, the Southern California native has accrued around half the points he had at this time in 2016. Indeed, Fritz had collected 282 points by the second week of February. The arrow is clearly pointing in the wrong direction.
Rounding up the NextGen Top 20 is Stefan Kozlov, who’s also turning in a worse campaign than last year. Despite the stout grass results, a 21-22 record isn’t cutting it.
At No. 22 is Noah Rubin, who hasn’t been able to play since April. It’s an unfortunate break for the former Wake Forest star after an impressive Aussie summer, in which he made Roger Federer quite uncomfortable in the second round of the Australian Open and won the Launceston Challenger.
Tommy Paul (#25) deserves a lot of credit for his resurgence after a dismal 2016 calendar year, but he is far from ready to make an impact in the big tournaments. Reilly Opelka (#28) owns a humongous weapon in his serve, but he’s mightily struggled this year, even on grass. He is still in contention for social media MVP, but his tennis repertoire, aside from hitting dingers, is still pretty bare.
Last but not least, Michael Mmoh (#44) has been atrocious for most of the year and he better find his form soon unless he wants to go back to the Futures grind.
Grades:
Fritz: F
Kozlov: D
Rubin: N/A (A- until his injury)
Opelka: F
Mmoh: F
On the bright side, the US Open Series is upon us and it is widely known Americans tend to obtain better results on home soil than abroad. There’s time to fix this mess.
NextGen Finals Prediction: Tiafoe snags the last direct entry spot. Either Donaldson, Escobedo, or Canadian stud Denis Shapovalov get in when Zverev withdraws.
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