Andy Murray has never been ranked higher than World #2. Novak Djokovic seems to have a stranglehold on the World #1 ranking and looks to have an untouchable lead. So how is the top ranking in reach for the Brit? It’s far simpler than you might think.
World #1 is in Reach for Andy Murray
First of all, let’s look at the numbers. Djokovic, after not playing in Cincinnati this week, now sits at 14,480 points. It is a little less than 2,000 ranking points off from his record total of a month ago, but it is still one of the highest total ranking points ever in tennis. Murray has 9,305 ranking points, a whopping 5,500 points behind Djokovic. Just to be clear, 5,500 points is just a little less than three Grand Slam titles. That is a tremendous lead. Conventional wisdom would say that Murray is not reaching that anytime soon.
Of course, such a high number of ranking points means that those points had to come from somewhere. Unfortunately for Djokovic, a very large chunk of those points came in the last few months of the year last year. In fact, Djokovic has 5,800 points to defend from now until the end of the season. He won the US Open, two Masters 1000 titles (Shanghai and Paris-Bercy), a 500 (Beijing), and earned 1,300 points from going 4-1 and winning last year’s World Tour Finals. Murray, in contrast, has a measly 1,600 points to defend between now and November.
If Andy Murray wins the US Open, he will be very close to passing Djokovic in terms of year-to-date points. If Murray beats anyone but Djokovic in the final, the Brit will actually be leading in the “race.” Even if Djokovic manages to hold off Murray in the final three months of the season and keep that World #1 ranking, something that is far from a given considering Djokovic’s last two months, Djokovic will still probably have to defend his Australian Open title to keep his top ranking.
It gets even better for Murray, though. Since April, after Djokovic won back-to-back Masters 1000 titles at Indian Wells and Miami, Murray has earned approximately 1,500 points more than Djokovic. The months of April-August include a bit less than half of the points that can be earned during the season, but that is a big lead for the Brit. Djokovic has definitely shown us that he is capable of defending all of his results at just about anywhere, but as of right now, Murray will have a distinct advantage by the time next April rolls around.
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