The tight end landscape in fantasy football is an absolute crapshoot. Once you get past the elite trio of Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, and George Kittle, there isn’t much in terms of proven potential. Because of this uncertainty, the aforementioned tight ends are getting drafted earlier and earlier in mocks. If you don’t want to use a second- or third-round pick on those three, then you’ll need to do some research and find a diamond in the rough. Cleveland Browns tight end David Njoku flashed his ability in 2018, but does he have what it takes to step up his game in 2019?
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Fantasy Football 2019 Outlook: David Njoku
2018 Recap
David Njoku had the best season of his young career in 2018 while catching passes from up-and-coming quarterback Baker Mayfield. The Miami product finished the year with 56 receptions for 639 yards and four touchdowns, good enough to end up as the TE8 in standard scoring formats. While his final stat line looks good, he was anything but consistent. Njoku had 10 games where he failed to put up 5.5 fantasy points, including five games where he put up two points or fewer. He had a few big games to inflate his final stat line, but you never felt comfortable putting him in the starting lineup.
Based on the underlying peripherals, Njoku should have been better than he was. The Browns gave Njoku every chance to be a major part of the offense, and he couldn’t consistently answer the call. According to Player Profiler, Njoku played in 84.3% of snaps, received 89 targets, and had a 16.9% target share. These metrics all ranked within the top-eight at the tight end position, so he should have been more consistent.
The reason for his lack of consistency is that of his underwhelming efficiency, particularly in the red zone. Njoku finished the year averaging 1.68 yards per pass route, good for the 68th-best mark in the league. His 77.5% catchable target rate ranked 24th and his 7.2 yards-per-target ranked 21st. Additionally, Njoku only saw eight red zone targets in his 16 games, which limited his touchdown potential.
Njoku had the opportunity to be a top-five tight end, but couldn’t capitalize on a great situation. Granted, this was only his second year in the league and he still has plenty of time to improve. If his situation stayed the same, he might be worth the risk as a mid- to late-round flier. However, the 2019 Cleveland Browns offense looks nothing like the 2018 Browns, and that’s bad news for Njoku.
2019 Projection
The Browns made arguably the biggest move of the off-season when they acquired superstar wide receiver Odell Beckham from the New York Giants. Beckham’s going to demand a large share of the targets, as he’s easily the best weapon on the Browns roster. Additionally, Cleveland still has Jarvis Landry and a promising young talent in Antonio Callaway. On top of that, the Browns will also have dual-threat star running back Kareem Hunt for the second half of the season. Hunt will only continue to eat into Njoku’s targets, further limiting his opportunity.
Njoku finished 2018 with the second-most targets on the team and that will not happen again. Barring injury, Beckham and Landry are locks to receive more looks than Njoku. Additionally, Callaway only saw nine fewer targets than Njoku as a rookie and could easily surpass Njoku if he continues to develop in the off-season.
Njoku finished where he did in large part because of his opportunity. Barring injury, it doesn’t look like Njoku will have that opportunity again. This doesn’t mean that he has no fantasy value, but he’ll be hard-pressed to have another top-10 finish.
David Njoku Average Draft Position
As of this posting, Fantasy Football Calculator currently has Njoku as a seventh-round pick and the 86th player off the board. This is an interesting spot for Njoku, as he’s projected to be selected one round after guys like Evan Engram, Hunter Henry, and Jared Cook and just four spots behind Vance McDonald. After Njoku, the next tight end selected is Trey Burton in the 11th round.
Selecting Njoku in the seventh round is a bad idea. The tight end landscape is desolate, but that doesn’t mean you should reach for someone like Njoku. Selecting Njoku means you’d be passing on a player with decent upside like LeSean McCoy, Jerick McKinnon, or Carlos Hyde. You’re getting off to wait until the late rounds and select a guy like Trey Burton, Delanie Walker, or T.J. Hockenson. These three will give you similar production to Njoku and you can use your seventh-round pick to build depth at positions of higher importance.
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