How Ferrari’s Baku performance has affected their title hopes with 7 rounds to go.
Ferrari’s performance at 2024’s latest F1 outing in Baku
Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz were ecstatic heading into F1’s 2024 Azerbaijan Grand Prix weekend. A win for Ferrari at the preceding F1 weekend in Monza had rekindled their 2024 championship challenge. Baku, another speedy track, awaited Ferrari eagerly in 2024. Leclerc fancied his chances, having taken three F1 poles in a row for Ferrari around the Land of Fire.
Leclerc duly made it four Ferrari poles in a row around the Azerbaijan capital city, with another scorching lap. He took pole to the tune of three-tenths of a second, laying down the gauntlet ahead of the race on Sunday. Carlos Sainz made it third on the grid for Ferrari, putting both in the running for victory.
Both Ferrari cars settled into a comfortable first and fourth in the early laps of the 2024 Azerbaijan Grand Prix. Leclerc led by a comfortable six-second margin. However, it all came undone for Ferrari. The all-conquering McLarens loomed strong, with Oscar Piastri‘s sensational overtake into turn one seeing him snatch the race lead.
Piastri pulled away towards a second F1 win in the closing stages. This left Leclerc to fend off Sergio Perez and Ferrari teammate Sainz. While Leclerc was stern in defence, holding second, Sainz slipped into third on lap 50. However, he went deep into turn two, challenging the Monegasque for second. This allowed Perez to get alongside the Spaniard, and the two made contact on the straight, veering into the barriers.
The incident cost both teams valuable points in the constructors’. Perez’s DNF meant Red Bull fell to 20 points behind McLaren in the championship. Sainz’s DNF cost Ferrari a chance to eat into the tally of the two ahead.
Why Baku proved a big miss for Ferrari
The Ferrari challenge was further exemplified at Baku, with Leclerc taking pole by a stellar margin of three-tenths of a second. Sainz started third, while the two Red Bulls of Perez and Max Verstappen started fourth and sixth respectively.
However, one big hitter started further down the order. Lando Norris coming across a yellow flag in qualifying restricted him to 17th on the grid. This became 15th after two drivers ahead would start from the rear of the grid.
With Norris’ race compromised on Sunday, and the two Red Bulls not expected to be challenging for victory, it proved a brilliant opportunity for the team in red to capitalise and score big. Despite the long speed section in the final sector, it would be difficult to overtake elsewhere around the track.
While Leclerc may have regretted a lack of defence when Piastri took the lead, Ferrari still looked set to finish second and fourth. Leclerc’s stern defence against Perez opened the door for Sainz to slip by into third. This would have been an ideal result for Ferrari, given the circumstances. With Norris and Verstappen only sixth and seventh, Leclerc could gain further points on the two ahead of him in the standings.
Ferrari was forecast to move to 440 points had Leclerc and Sainz finished second and third. This would have put them much closer to Red Bull and McLaren in the tally. Had the result been the same as the order on lap 49, McLaren would have moved to 472 points. Red Bull would have only moved to 466, only 26 ahead of the red team.
The effects, and why Ferrari left Baku with mixed feelings in 2024
The collision between Sainz and Perez cost both teams a haul of points. Both teams lost significant ground to McLaren in the standings, who soared to a 20-point lead in the constructors’ standings from Red Bull. Ferrari, meanwhile, sit 51 points adrift of the papaya team.
The result hit Ferrari hardest, as Baku was one of the stronger tracks for the team. Having qualified in the top three around a track of Baku’s characteristics, it’s no surprise that team principal Fred Vasseur expressed this as a “result below expectation”.
It’s always important to capitalise on any opportunity to score big. This has never been more evident in a year like 2024 when F1’s unpredictability has taken up another notch. With McLaren on a 13-race podium streak, teams must mount a stronger attack if they are to indeed challenge for the outright championship.
The miss at Baku was more hard-hitting, considering Ferrari may not get such opportunities presented to them. Carlos Sainz turned his attention towards Singapore after Sunday’s late crash. The revamped characteristics of the track could once again play into Ferrari’s fortunes. However, this could be their last chance until after the end of the American triple header, to significantly outscore the dominant McLarens.
Where do Ferrari stand in the fight for the 2024 F1 constructors’ battle?
In terms of points accumulated, Ferrari stand at 425 points, 51 behind leaders McLaren. The team from Woking capitalised on the late Sainz-Perez altercation to take home a significant 38 points from Baku.
With seven rounds to go, Ferrari face a stiff challenge to overturn the deficit. The Woking-based team have appeared on the podium in each of the past 13 rounds. This has guaranteed them at least 15 points on every weekend, from either driver. However, consistency has been the name of the game for the team in orange. Both Norris and Piastri have only finished outside the points once.
On the other hand, Ferrari haven’t quite hit the same high notes. A mid-season struggle due to upgrades not bringing performance cost the team points. A four-race spell from Canada to Silverstone yielded only 50 points, compared to 111 for McLaren, and 97 for Red Bull.
This lean stretch undoubtedly hurt the team’s aspirations for the constructors’ titles. After the Monaco Grand Prix, Ferrari sat only 24 points off Red Bull in the standings. After the British Grand Prix, only four rounds later, the gap had swelled to 71 points.
The upcoming rounds, how Ferrari are expected to fare
The upcoming round in Singapore could play to the Ferrari’s strengths, featuring slower corners and long straights. However, the Italian team could be expected to fare worse than their biggest rival McLaren in the Americas’ triple header. Austin’s medium and high-speed corners play into the papaya team’s strengths. In Mexico, both Red Bull and McLaren will relish the altitude and characteristics of the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez.
Finally, Interlagos marks the end of the Americas triple header. Once again, it features a middle sector full of medium and high-speed corners, playing into the characteristics of the McLarens.
An outlier would be the Las Vegas Grand Prix two weeks after the triple header. The street track is set to play into the characteristics of the team in red, with its street surface and the nearly 2 km long straight.
The final Middle-Eastern doubleheader at Qatar and Abu Dhabi round out the season. The mix of high-speed and medium-speed corners at the former played largely into McLaren’s hands in 2023. The team in orange accumulated a whopping 47 points around the track, courtesy of a sprint win for Piastri, and a double podium in Sunday’s main race. The track will once again be expected to suit the characteristics of the McLaren.
Meanwhile, the long straights and slower corners of Abu Dhabi could be expected to play into the strengths of the SF24.
Thus, Ferrari will face an uphill task of overhauling the deficit to McLaren in the standings. They will have to maximise opportunities on circuits favouring the SF24’s characteristics and capitalise on surprise opportunities up ahead if they are indeed looking to fulfil aspirations of a first championship since 2008.
