Lawson is set to earn a full-time contract with VCARB – triggering questions about Ricciardo’s future with the team
Red Bull are expected to announce Liam Lawson’s promotion after this weekend’s Singapore GP. Having spent months on the sidelines, Lawson is now the verge of securing a full-time seat for 2025. All indications suggest he will drive at VCARB, which will have consequences for Red Bull’s other drivers.
Sergio Perez is in a stronger position
As the Championship fight between Red Bull, McLaren and Ferrari intensifies, driver speculation has quietened down.
More specifically, Christian Horner’s driver line-up is under significantly less scrutiny than before the summer break. Sergio Perez is experiencing better form in recent events, even outperforming Verstappen last weekend in Baku.
Whilst Perez’s overall 2024 results are still sub-optimal, Red Bull’s assessment of his season is becoming slightly more positive. After all, Red Bull have admitted that ignoring Perez’s feedback has been detrimental to their development.
According to Christian Horner, an update introduced at last year’s Spanish GP has been identified as the beginning of Red Bull’s issues.
At the time, Perez complained about the new floor component that was brought. However, with Verstappen performing well, this complaint was largely ignored.
Over a year later, the personnel in Milton Keynes have retraced their steps to Spain 2023 as the beginning of their decline.
Whilst this does completely shield Perez from criticism, it seems unlikely Red Bull will replace him now – considering they have stood by him during far more difficult patches.
The future is unclear for Ricciardo
Despite Red Bull’s hesitance to promote Liam Lawson, his promotion to F1 – generally speaking – was always going to happen. It was only a question of when and how the Kiwi would cement his place on the grid.
As it stands, the consensus is that Lawson will replace Ricciardo. Throughout the season, Helmut Marko has hinted that VCARB will return to having two young drivers – which is consistent with their traditional model.
In many ways, returning to this status quo was inevitable. When Ricciardo first returned to F1 last year, it is unlikely he would have envisioned spending three seasons at VCARB.
Therefore, missing out on a seat at the Faenza squad for next season is not necessarily a massive deviation from Red Bull’s initial plans. Still, this inevitably leaves the Australian driver in a difficult position.
Red Bull are more than capable of making surprising decisions with their driver line-ups.
However, it is increasingly clear that Ricciardo’s position with the team is at risk. If the defending Champions do not believe Ricciardo can replace Perez in the foreseeable future, then his presence at VCARB only obstructs young talent.
Tsunoda expected to retain his seat
The 35-year-old has spoken openly about the precariousness of his position, admitting that this year could be his “last chance” to make a comeback at the front.
His teammate, Yuki Tsunoda, continues to have an edge this season. Although Tsunoda’s recent form is tricky to assess (after being taken out in Monza and Baku), his qualifying head-to-head against Ricciardo since the summer break is 2-1.
In the context of Tsunoda’s strong performances this year – alongside his 2025 contract – his position at Faenza should be safe.
Regardless, Liam Lawson is edging closer to making his F1 debut. The question is who the Kiwi’s introduction will be at the expense of. Although nothing is completely certain, most indications point towards bad news for Daniel Ricciardo.
