With the regular season over and the playoffs beginning this weekend, it is time to speculate about who will be the first four drivers to be eliminated from title contention. The round begins this weekend in Atlanta, followed by Watkins Glen, and ends at Bristol Motor Speedway. I asked the other members of the Last Word on Sports NASCAR Team to weigh in with their picks for the first group of eliminated drivers.
Hayden Murdock’s Eliminations: Daniel Suarez, Harrison Burton, Austin Cindric, Joey Logano
For the round of 16 eliminations, I am choosing Daniel Suarez, Harrison Burton, Austin Cindric, and Joey Logano. Daniel Suarez may have gotten the win in the spring but lightning does not strike in the same place twice. He only has one other finish in the top five at Texas. His average finish so far is 18.6, this will not get you into the round of 12. Same thinking for Harrison Burton, he got lucky at Daytona, but with an average finish of 25.7, he is not making the next round. Again, Austin Cindric has one win and a top five, but an average finish of 20.6, cannot see him making it past this round.
Joey Logano as my final pick might be controversial, but without that fuel-saving win at Nashville, I think he would have been in the same points situation as Wallace, Busch, and others looking for that final playoff spot at Darlington. Logano has eight top-ten finishes this season, the most of my four picks, but he also has five DNFs and an average finish of 18.3. Now Logano has won at each of these tracks in past seasons. He has the most potential to pull off a win out of the four.
Kaleb Kraus’ Eliminations: Austin Cindric, Daniel Suarez, Harrison Burton, and Martin Truex Jr
Kaleb picked Austin Cindric, Daniel Suarez, Harrison Burton, and Martin Truex Jr. 3 out of 4 are the same as mine, with the exception being Truex. Martin Truex Jr was in a precarious spot at Darlington. He wrecked out on lap 3 and narrowly got into the playoffs on points. Consistency is Truex’swere secret weapon. Darlington was his second DNF of the season. A DNF is not forward momentum to start your playoff run.
"I'm an idiot."- Martin Truex Jr. https://t.co/RSOWYh1jDE pic.twitter.com/oKM4TXmbVA
— FOX: NASCAR (@NASCARONFOX) September 1, 2024
Truex finished twelfth at Atlanta in the spring, after starting in the same position. Consistent and dodged the big wrecks. Truex has also won on road courses in the Next Gen car and scored a top ten at Watkins Glen last year. If Bristol’s tire is anything like it was in the Spring with heavy wear and falloff, expect another top five.
But if Truex can’t get through Atlanta without a crash, he could be in a tough position going into both Watkins Glen and Bristol. Bristol is known for large crashes taking out innocent bystanders. He could find elimination in the Round of 16 if both Atlanta and Bristol do not end favorably.
Samuel Stubbs’ Eliminations: Austin Cindric, Harrison Burton, Alex Bowman, Chase Briscoe
Samuel chose two of the same drivers as Kaleb and I. His different picks are Alex Bowman and Chase Briscoe. Bowman won the Chicago street race and Briscoe the Southern 500 last Sunday. But even with one win both, they have not ran as well as they have in years past. Bowman scored a top-five at Pocono following his win, but since then has not even cracked the top fifteen. Briscoe’s best finish before his win was second at New Hampshire in back in June.
Atlanta, as mentioned before is a wildcard race. Lots of things can happen outside of the teams control. Briscoe has qualified better than Bowman this year at Atlanta and Bristol, but Bowman did finish top five at Bristol even with the tire issues present. Both have struggled at Watkins Glen, with Bowman’s average start and finish around 21st. Briscoe is not much better at around 23rd.
This will be a tough round for these two. If they can’t be on top of their game, it could be an early exit for these two.
Takeaways:
Many of the drivers picked have one win or just in the playoffs on points. It seems they can show up and have pace, but not on a consistent basis. If even one can get some consistently in this first round, they could make it through to the Round of 12. Atlanta will be the test to see if these bottom four can find the pace they need to make a serious run for the title.
