The 2024 F1 Championship title fights just got tighter after an unexpected Ferrari win at the Italian Grand Prix
The 2024 Formula 1 season has had a complete turnaround. Now we’ve got a title fight for both Championships. Unexpected, but welcomed.
When the season flagged off in Bahrain, it was the expected Red Bull 1-2. Reigning Champion Max Verstappen won 22 seconds ahead of his teammate Sergio Perez, and 25 ahead of Ferrar’s Carlos Sainz who joined the Red Bull pair on the podium. The results seemed like a preview of the season to come, and the next few round all but confirmed it.
After round 5, China, Red Bull were the fastest car. Behind them, Ferrari who had started out the season strong traded places with McLaren who left Mercedes to struggle alone. However, in round 6, Miami, McLaren were the fastest car, and have been since. Ferrari have fluctuated in terms of performance, and Mercedes have brought themselves into the mix.
Round 16 has just been completed, and Ferrari have reigned supreme at their home race. Their victory though, was not expected. Opting for the one-stop strategy for both their drivers, they risked it all to get a good haul of points in Monza. Charles Leclerc managed to maintain his lead with a faster McLaren – Oscar Piastri – closing in on him. McLaren got the two final steps on the podium with Piastri and Lando Norris respectively, with Carlos Sainz just losing out on a podium place.
The 2024 F1 Championship title fights have been shaking up in the last few rounds, with other teams finally able to challenge the Red Bulls. And as much as strengths have been highlighted, as have been weaknesses. If the events of the Italian Grand Prix at Monza are replicated in the remaining races, the final standings of both titles will be even more unpredictable.
McLaren’s strong driver pairing
McLaren have got two very clear advantages. They have the fastest car on the grid. In Zaandvort, Norris, the race winner had a 22-second gap between him and Verstappen in P2. In Monza, in the final laps, Piastri, on a two-stop strategy contrary to the Ferraris he was chasing, was lapping much faster than those around him. Having got past Carlos Sainz who had been struggling on his old Hard tyres, Piastri who was the faster McLaren today was closing up on Leclerc for the race win. On one lap towards the end, he trimmed 1.8 seconds from the gap between himself and Leclerc.
McLaren are undoubtedly the fastest team on the grid.
Their second advantage is a very strong driver lineup. Lando Norris has been spoken of as a future World Champion since his debut season in 2019. Oscar Piastri had two teams in court – Alpine and McLaren – with both eager to sign him. After his debut season in 2023, he too is being praised as a future World Champion.
The two both got their maiden F1 wins this season, helping McLaren claim their stance in both title fights. Norris, with better race results, is the one closest to Verstappen in the Drivers’ Championship, with 62 points separating them. Meanwhile, in the Constructors’ Championship, with both Norris and Piastri with good performances, McLaren are the favourites, only 8 points behind Red Bull.
Norris’ first lap blunders
However, all the puzzle pieces are not in place at McLaren. Norris, despite having good one-lap pace as well as race pace, has struggled to get the results he should be getting. The young Briton has made a habit of losing positions on the first lap, even when he starts on pole. In Monza, he lost the lead to Piastri and was shortly after overtaken by Leclerc.
Unless Norris is able to overcome this issue, it could have a great negative effect on his charge to win his first Drivers’ Championship title.
McLaren have received a lot of backlash online for not reinforcing team orders to help Norris’ charge to the title. However, it is a hard battle to fight when Norris has consistently lost positions on the first lap, whilst Piastri has grown into a driver who can fight for wins.
What is clear though, is that McLaren have disrupted Red Bull’s dominance. While Verstappen might be the favourite to win the Drivers’ Championship, we have got ourselves a battle for the Constructors’. McLaren are only 8 points behind Red Bull as things stand.
Red Bull’s fall from grace
Red Bull nailed the 2022 regulations from the get-go. The Drivers’ and Constructors’ titles have been theirs since 2022, as have the majority of the race wins. For one, Red Bull won all but one race in 2023, with that streak beginning in mid-2022 when Ferrari were unable to maintain their position in the title fight.
2024 was expected to be a repeat of 2023, with the first few rounds suggesting that as well.
However, Miami was a slight reality check with McLaren’s pace, and Monaco brought a much-unwanted predicament. Sergio Perez had a massive collision with the two Haases of Kevin Magnessun and Nico Hulkenberg in Monaco, the RB20 sustaining a lot of damage. The cost incurred was said to have heavily financially impacted Red Bull. As a result, Red Bull are not able to bring upgrades as they’d like.
The RB20’s pace is not what it once was, and the rest of the pack has caught up. McLaren, Ferrari and even Mercedes can now comfortably challenge Red Bull. Even if Red Bull are to take both titles again, it would not be so easy.
Sergio Perez
What will most affect the Milton Keynes team’s charge to the Constructors’ Championship title is not that the other teams have caught up. The main issue comes from within. While Max Verstappen has produced good results whenever able to, the same cannot be said for Perez.
Four times this season, Perez has been knocked out in Q1. Once this season, he has been knocked out in Q2. He has also been unable to acquire pole in any of his Q3 appearances. And only twice has Perez locked out the front row with his teammate. Not once has Perez out-qualified his teammate this 2024 F1 season.
Verstappen on the other hand has had 9 poles this year. The lowest the Dutchman has qualified this season was a P7 in Monza.
When it comes to the races, with such low starting positions, Perez has found himself having to drive recovery races more often than he should have to. In as much as the Red Bull does not have the pace it once did, it is still a car fast enough to fight with the likes of Ferrari and Mercedes.
The Mexican driver has had only four podium appearances in 2024, with the latest coming in Round 5, in China. Even when he would finish on the podium, one position behind his winning teammate, he would cross the line with a large margin behind. In Bahrain for one, he was 22 seconds behind his teammate. Regardless of where Verstappen and Perez finish a race, Perez always finishes at least 12 seconds behind his teammate. It was only in Miami where he finished less than 12 seconds behind Verstappen.
In 2021, Red Bull used Perez to help defend against Lewis Hamilton. This helped Max Verstappen in his race for the title against the Mercedes driver. This season, however, Perez has not been close enough to support Verstappen’s charge. That not only jeopardises Red Bull’s chances of the Drivers’ Championship but also of the Constructors’ Championship. Unlike McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes, Red Bull do not have two drivers bringing in a good haul of points.
To put it into perspective, of the current top teams – McLaren, Red Bull, Ferrari and Mercedes – all their drivers, apart from Sergio Perez have won at least one race this season.
Ferrari’s random glory runs
Ferrari started the season as the second-fastest team on the grid. They were also the first team to give us a none Red Bull win when Verstappen retired from the Australian Grand Prix, with Carlos Sainz. However, in China and the races to follow, the Scuderia had some dips in performance. Canada in particular was a disastrous weekend for them. In Canada, both Ferraris had a DNF, but when both cars were running, they had a severe lack of pace.
What made Ferrari’s disappointment in Montreal so shocking was that Charles Leclerc had won the Monaco Grand Prix the race prior. Ferrari had good pace in Monaco, and gave Leclerc his first home win in single-seater racing. For that to be followed by a complete lack of pace and a double DNF in Canada was concerning to say the least.
However, in there attempt to return to the fight out front, Ferrari reigned supreme in their home race. At the Italian Grand Prix in Monza, Ferrari braving it all and going for the one-stop strategy won the race. Ferrari have had an issue with tyre degradation, so to go for this move whilst surrounded by teams with better tyre management going for the two-stop alternative was quite risky.
The risk was rewarded though. Charles Leclerc crossed the finish line first to wear the crown in Monza, his team’s home race. Carlos Sainz who was unable to keep the flying McLarens behind him for too long just missed out on the podium. However, a P1 and P4 was much better than what Ferrari were expecting coming into the weekend. Ferrari weren’t the only ones shocked, rather, everyone was. For a team that has for a long time struggled with calling the right strategies to nail it was an unexpected but welcome moment.
Whether we will see Ferrari continue being genuine race-win contenders this season, we are yet to find out. However, if they do continue the trend of random bursts of great performances, they will have an impact on the 2024 F1 Championship title fights.
Mercedes’ complete turn of fate
Ferrari and Mercedes have both seen the lowest of the lows as well as the highest of the highs this season.
Mercedes on the other hand started the season on a very low note. While still part of the top 4 teams, they were by far the slowest, and the last to make any headway. However, things have turned around, and suddenly, Mercedes have the pace to fight for podiums, and even race wins.
Earlier in the season, it looked like the Silver Arrows would only get podiums if the teams ahead made race-defining mistakes or had retirements. Things really have changed though. Mercedes now have 2 pole positions and 3 race wins so far this season. George Russell earned pole position in Montreal and Silverstone. The young Brit won the race in Austria after Lando Norris and Max Verstappen collided in the closing stages of the race.
Lewis Hamilton emotionally won the British Grand Prix. He also acquired the race win two races later in Spa. This was after George Russell who crossed the line first got disqualified because his car failed to meet the minimum weight requirement.
Much like Ferrari, performances like these could very much disrupt the Championship title fights.
Championship standings after round 16 of 24
The 2024 F1 Championship title fights are ramping up. Red Bull are dwindling, McLaren are fast but unsure, and Ferrari and Mercedes are in and out of the title fights.
Top 4 Constructors’ Championship standings:
1. Red Bull – 446
2. McLaren – 438
3. Ferrari – 407
4. Mercedes – 292
Top 8 Drivers’ Championship standings:
1. Max Verstappen – 303
2. Lando Norris – 241
3. Charles Leclerc – 217
4. Oscar Piastri – 197
5. Carlos Sainz – 184
6. Lewis Hamilton – 164
7. Sergio Perez – 143
8. George Russell – 128
