Red Bull are at risk of losing Liam Lawson over the coming months
Predicting Red Bull’s decisions is an almost impossible undertaking. Only last week, Sergio Perez was on the verge of being replaced for the remainder of the season. Then, in an unforeseen change of events, it was announced Red Bull’s driver line-up would be retained. Not only does this have implications for the main team, but also for their young talent – including Liam Lawson.
The situation at Milton Keynes is extremely unpredictable, but the dynamics of their second team are arguably trickier to predict.
Yuki Tsunoda and Daniel Ricciardo remain at VCARB, with both drivers missing out on promotion to the main team.
At one stage, both drivers were linked to a Red Bull seat.
Whilst Tsunoda’s support within Red Bull was somewhat lacking, the public consensus at various stages this year is that Tsunoda has been deserving of a top drive.
Meanwhile, Ricciardo was building momentum leading up to the summer break.
The Australian looked poised to capitalise on Christian Horner’s goodwill and rectify a difficult opening stretch of the season.
However, both drivers have been kept at VCARB. This has significant implications for Liam Lawson, who is still waiting on the sidelines.
Red Bull risk missing out
Since the end of last year, it has been well-established that there is a clause in Lawson’s contract.
It is understood that, should Red Bull fail to offer him a seat, Lawson is free to leave the team.
Even in more normal circumstances, a seat at the Red Bull set-up – though still guaranteeing a place in F1 – is perhaps the most precious in F1.
However, given their ongoing instability, Lawson would almost certainly jump on the opportunity to have a full-time contract elsewhere on the grid.
There are two key questions to answer on this issue.
The first is whether other teams are interested in signing the Kiwi. At present, unfortunately for Lawson, there are no guarantees.
Lawson must work with limited options
Of the two midfield teams yet to confirm their 2025 line-up, Sauber have been tentatively linked to the 22-year-old in previous months.
Unfortunately for the Kiwi, there is no certainty about who the Hinwil-based team will sign in 2025.
Although he is almost certainly on their radar, that does not necessarily translate into an F1 contract.
The second key question that will determine Lawson’s future is whether Red Bull will promote him for next season.
Of course, missing out on a potential mid-season appointment to VCARB would have been frustrating.
With that said, this feeling would quickly dissipate if his place on next year’s grid is certain.
Unfortunately for Lawson, there is no certainty on what Red Bull will decide. In theory, it is unlikely Perez will continue in the team next season.
Then again, the same could have been said just last week.
Fundamentally, Christian Horner’s team are very difficult to predict. This doesn’t mean the reigning Champions have forgotten him.
What is significant, however, is that Lawson could seek alternatives to Red Bull’s highly volatile climate.
