Liam Lawson could be at the mercy of a hugely unpredictable F1 driver market in the upcoming months.
Less than ten months ago, the F1 driver market was extremely stagnant. The only real activity was at VCARB (Racing Bulls), with Liam Lawson among four drivers to compete for the Faenza-based team. Lawson was called upon at the last minute to replace Ricciardo in Zandvoort – initially just a filler whilst the Australian recovered. However, in just a handful of rounds, Lawson cemented himself as more than just an extra.
He quickly adapted to life in F1, performing at a comparable level to Yuki Tsunoda. At the time, Red Bull was widely criticised for not giving Lawson a 2024 contract. Still, amidst this frustration, it was generally expected that he was essentially guaranteed a 2025 seat. Indeed, Helmut Marko has confirmed there is a clause in Lawson’s contract allowing him to leave the Red Bull family if they do not offer him an F1 contract.
To some, this could be interpreted as a necessary incentive to give Lawson a seat next year. However, new information indicates that VCARB is not necessarily preparing to give him a seat next year.
VCARB redefining their identity
Historically, Red Bull’s second team has always funnelled young talents into the main team. Max Verstappen, Carlos Sainz, and Daniel Ricciardo are some of the drivers competing with the squad now under Laurent Mekies’s leadership.
However, Ricciardo’s arrival last year cemented a shift. To be clear, the reigning Champions are still investing in their young drivers. Pepe Marti and Isack Hadjar are showing encouraging performance in Formula 2 with Campos – as part of Red Bull’s economy.
Despite this continuity, there has undoubtedly been a shift. The decision to sign Nyck de Vries and replace him with Ricciardo (only bringing in Lawson out of necessity) is evidence of their willingness to look beyond their academy.
The Racing Bulls have stressed on multiple occasions how valuable Daniel Ricciardo is to their team. Both commercially and in terms of pure performance, the Australian is very valuable to Laurent Mekies and Peter Bayer.
Meanwhile, Yuki Tsunoda is establishing himself as a very strong F1 driver. His potential is being fulfilled, and he is becoming an increasingly reliable performer. Arguably, he is Red Bull’s best investment into a young driver for some time.
Because of this, there is no clear space for Lawson. With neither VCARB driver likely to replace Sergio Perez, he would require Red Bull to kick out one of VCARB’s duo indefinitely to earn a seat. This is unlikely, especially given the team’s recent reluctance to promote their young talent.
Of course, Lawson is still in the game. Predicting how the team from Milton Keynes will handle its drivers is never easy.
Still, as Christian Horner has explained, what was once seen as a formality is far more complicated than many anticipated.
