It has been a full week without major Cup Series racing. No worries though, we are back and loaded with a schedule full of exciting races. We take a look today at betting on the QuikTrip Folds of Honor 500 from Atlanta.
Odds on Odds: QuikTrip Folds of Honor 500
Sunday marks yet another race at the famed Atlanta Motor Speedway. This one will not see fans but will see exciting action as usual. That means betting on the Folds of Honor 500 will be a fun one.
First piece of advice, this track is bound to be slick! We are in Hotlanta however. Drivers who tend to be good on slick tracks will have the advantage. This means keep an eye on those guys with a dirt background. They can adjust faster to the changing pavement and deal with driving a car sideways.
For the second time in 2020, Chase Elliott gave Brad Keselowski a victory. This time it came in Bristol and at the hands of a misjudged turn. Elliott tried to drive in under Keselowski’s teammate Joey Logano but instead slid up the track into Logano and took them both out of contention to win. There was Keselowski to pick up win #2 on the season.
As far as betting goes on the Folds of Honor 500, I’d say this is one of the most wide open bets of the season. Outside of Daytona, there is no predicting this race because it is a track that has seen its fair share of veterans win but also seen some young stars grab their first checkered flag, ex. Kevin Harvick and Carl Edwards.
Let’s dive a little deeper into the betting for Sunday’s Folds of Honor 500.
All odds are from Vegas Insiders. Odds subject to change prior to race start.
Betting Favorites for the Folds of Honor 500
This list will be lengthy which means the other lists will be much shorter. I say this one will be lengthy simply because so many names are running well and run well at Atlanta. Let’s start off with probably the hottest driver in Nascar. Chase Elliott is +650 and is tearing up every track. Could this be a break out year for the Hendrick Motorsports driver? I’d say it certainly looks like it. Since coming back, Elliott has one win and has given away two other wins plus he was wrecked going for the win. All of that in the Cup Series. On the truck side he has is the Bounty Hunter and collected the $100,000 bonus from Harvick and Gander RV owner Marcus Lemonis.
Chase is dominating the entire sport right now and it certainly the guy to keep tabs on. Hands down the favorite? No, but certainly should be on the radar and probably can be on the radar for the remainder of the season.
Kevin Harvick has had so much success here. Unfortunately, he doesn’t have the wins to show for it. This is the place that he got his first win back in 2001 and he has run near the front ever since. At +500, he is the betting favorite to win the Folds of Honor 500. Might as well be the hands down favorite. There is no one else that has had as much success here in the race on Sunday.
Maybe the only guy who can match Harvick is Kyle Busch. KB has won in every vehicle possible at Atlanta and in fact gave Toyota their first win at Atlanta. He joins Elliott at +650 and will be a solid lock for the fantasy lineup if the money fits.
Another driver who’s been great this season but doesn’t have all the best results is Alex Bowman. Bowman has dominated two races this season and won one of those. He had a chance to take one of the Darlington races and both Charlotte races. Unfortunately, that was just not the case. At +800, Bowman would be a good pick and a safe pick for the race.
Here is where the list gets long. Four drivers are on the board at +900. Keselowski, Logano, Martin Truex, Jr. and Denny Hamlin are all in the same boat come Sunday. They are favorites but are they FAVORITES? Logano, Keselowski and Hamlin each have two wins this season. The one to be in question is MTJ. Truex had seven wins in year one with Joe Gibbs. Through nine races in 2020, he has zero top five finishes. Sunday could change his luck. He better hope so anyway.
Value Bets for the Folds of Honor 500
The list of value picks don’t stem too far from the teams mentioned in the favorites section.
Let’s start with yet another driver running well enough to win but just not able to put it together and that is Ryan Blaney. He is +1600 and is considered a value pick with the loaded list that comes from the favorites. He is fast and has run well. Look for Blaney to get his first top five in the ATL this weekend.
Out of the Stewart Haas stable it’s Clint Bowyer. He and teammate Harvick are driving Busch Beer themed cars this weekend. What could line up even more perfect for the party animal from Kansas than Bowyer winning on Sunday. It would be a party goers dream come true. He has a large list of drivers to get through first but it’s not too far off. Bowyer is +2500.
The Champion and the Up and comer are next on the list. Seven-Time champion Jimmie Johnson is on the board at +1800. This track is another one of his better facilities and with him running well enough to win look out of seven-time to do it Sunday. The up and comer in Erik Jones is +2500 and has been running consistent. His name should be in your fanatsy lineup for Sunday and that is easy because of how consistent he is.
Betting these value picks for the Folds of Honor 500 will pay off big if you play it right.
Underdog Story
Atlanta is a place where young drivers find themselves near the front and steal away wins. A young Kevin Harvick driving Dale Earnhardt’s car in only his 3rd start stole a win from Jeff Gordon, his first of his career. Carl Edwards drove around Jimmie Johnson on the final corner to pick up his first cup series win. Edwards did it just mere hours after winning his first ever then-Busch Series race.
What I am getting at is the underdog story is there. Look no further than young Tyler Reddick. He has driven the wheels off that car and overachieved in his first season at the top level. At +5000 he is more of a value pick than an underdog but the rookie gets special treatment.
Betting on the Folds of Honor 500 is difficult but dones’t have to be when you know the track is going to be hot and slick. A few drivers in the field can get it done on dirt and this place will be like that on Sunday. Christopher Bell is a three time Chili Bowl champion and will use his dirt experience to get to victory lane. At +150000 it certainly is possible.
Projected Fantasy Line-up
This week’s line-up will have a different feel to it than normal. I really am riding on some youth to step up in this race and steal one from the old guys. Drivers that have been hot will also make up this list.
Through DraftKings, the fantasy line-up for this week is: Chase Elliott, Alex Bowman, Clint Bowyer, Erik Jones, Christopher Bell and Tyler Reddick.
Match-up, Value and Upset Picks
When going through my match-up to watch this week, there was nothing that stood out. Some were just your typical dual but I wasn’t that impressed with anything so I won’t bore you with those this week.
Betting on the Folds of Honor 500 is bound to be hard just because of the unknown at Atlanta. I really like Erik Jones as my value pick. He is a guy who runs well at tracks that the veterans are suppose to be good at. He also runs consistent and won’t tear things up that don’t need to be. With the difficulties of no practice or qualifying that teams are seeing. Pure talent tends to show up.
For my upset pick this week I will look no further than Tyler Reddick. The RCR driver is fast and has been fast all year. With the improved equipment the team has brought this year it is real that the two time Xfinity Series champion finds victory lane sooner rather than later.
The Pick to Win the QuikTrip Folds of Honor 500 is…?
I have mulled over this pick with many names running through my head. Ultimately, I narrowed that list even further down to three. Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick and Chase Elliott are the drivers I really like in this race.
Elliott starts from the pole and will have a fast piece, especially in clean air. Harvick has his own line that people try to mimmick but no one can get it figured out. Busch is a guy who wins no matter what and is hungry to get that taste of winning back in 2020. So many good options and many things to weigh out for this betting pick in the Folds of Honor 500. The pick to win the QuikTrip Folds of Honor 500 is…
Kevin Harvick
KH is so good here. I wouldn’t be surprised if someone else jumps out and picks up the win but honestly I just don’t see it happening with him in the field. Harvick has won this race many times but only has a couple actual victories to show for it.
Busch and Elliott will be forces no dount about it and should make for some fun racing. My betting option for the Folds of Honor 500, though, couldn’t venture too far and I just look for someone successful to get it done on Sunday.
The QuikTrip Folds of Honor 500 goes green from Atlanta Motor Speedway at 3:00pm EST on FOX and PRN.
